COVER STORY | PHILIPPINES Cagayan


Potential sites for nuclear power


Sta. Ana, Cagayan Matara Point Racat Rapuli Sinuangan


Puerto Princesa, Palawan Concepcion Tagbarungis


Negros Occidental San Carlos Sipalay


Baatan Manila


Negros Oriental Bayawan


Zamboanga Cauit Piacon Point


assumption of 18% for PV means that nuclear’s output is five times higher for only three times the initial investment – also PV cells degrade at 1%/year making a useful life on the PV investment only 20 years, compared to nuclear’s 60 years and maybe longer. So initial capital investment in a nuclear plant yields around five times more electricity than from PV over the asset lifetimes. The government’s energy plan is careful to avoid


explicit cost predictions in print and the fuel and capital costs presented here are only part of the story. Predicting levelised cost of electricity is difficult in the best of conditions. But it is not at all clear that any of the planning options considered will reduce the burden of high electricity prices on the consumer. Nor will the current plan (without nuclear) make the Philippine economy more competitive with its regional and global competitors for new jobs. This fact has not gone unnoticed amongst politicians, the


business community, or the electorate. However, opponents of the Bataan plant have effectively raised concerns in the past about the safety of the plant in the public’s mind. This has made political leaders ginger about endorsing nuclear power. Philippine politics are generally non-ideological and voters decide based on the personality, character, and past performance of the candidates rather than for specific referenda or issues. Parties are weak and fluid, representing shifting coalitions of oligarchic families.


Negros Occidental Puerto Princesa Negros Oriental Zamboanga


Candidate insights The currently leading ticket of Ferdinand Marcos Jr, son of the former president and builder of the Bataan plant, and Sara Duterte, daughter of current President Rodrigo Duterte, are running ads calling out the high electricity prices and strongly hinting at exercising the nuclear power option. Marcos, who goes by his familiar name of Bongbong and his initials, BBM, campaigned explicitly on bringing Bataan online during his unsuccessful run for vice president in 2016. Two high profile leaders in the second tier of


candidates, according to polling at the time of writing, are split. Both are seeing support in the 20% range with


V Electricity cost: a political issue The relatively high cost of electricity in the Philippines is a political issue in the upcoming presidential elections. Residential rates for the generation component (three quarters of the total bill) are $0.16. It is difficult to see how this can be reduced or stabilised without nuclear power, given the assumptions of the recent energy plan. Fuel cost for coal is $2-3/mmBTU and capital cost for


a 1GWe addition in 2025 is about $2000/kW. But climate change commitments preclude it. LNG costs average $8/ mmBTU at 55% efficiency while hydro has not been able to build to target even at a 5.9 pesos total guaranteed rate. The other source that factors large in energy planning is


PV. Total investment in PV through 2040 would amount to $22 billion for 32GW or roughly $700/kW, substantially less than equivalent capacity in nuclear at $3000/kW. However, global nuclear experience has shown a 90% capacity factor is reachable for mature baseload plants while the planning


26 | April 2022 | www.neimagazine.com


Marcos at 50% in a contest that requires a plurality over 40% to win. Vice President Leni Robredo has not addressed nuclear so far, but she is generally of the mold of the President Cory Acquino, who led the ouster of Marcos Sr., succeeded him as president, and halted operations at Bataan. She is not expected to be supportive of nuclear and may decide to vocally attack it. Another major candidate is Senator Manny Pacquio, the retired prizefighter. He has already publicly attacked the Duterte Administration for failing to do more to lower electricity bills. A problem is that he is running as listed candidate of the regional PROMDI party that has historically called both for civilian nuclear power and for nuclear weapons. If elected, Pacquio would likely find it impossible to do both, no matter the perceived strategic necessity of the latter. The election is 9 May. In summary, the Philippines is a land of limited low-


cost energy resources and currently suffers competitively against its neighbours because of that. Once it made the choice to commit to the global climate change regime and forego coal, any non-nuclear path forward will only increase generation costs. If the electorate through their elected leaders demand stable or lower electricity costs, and new coal is off the table, only nuclear power offers hope. ■


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