SMRS & ADVANCED REACTORS | DECARBONISING INDUSTRY


standardised power plant products that can meet business requirements and cost thresholds of industrial energy users. The low costs achieved ($60–90/MWh) enable serving 347 GW of industrial demand by 2050.


● Transformation Scenario (700 GW by 2050): Full re-engineering of nuclear technology into a mass- manufactured product, representing approximately 2,300 reactors of 300 MW capacity, where the entire project delivery process is designed for manufacture and assembly (DfMA). This approach enables product- based licensing replacing site-by-site approvals; supply chains producing standardised. In addition, it supports development of components at scale; factory assembly lines delivering complete nuclear modules; deployment timelines measured in months, not years; and costs in the $40–60/MWh range that make nuclear energy competitive with natural gas.


A shift from Current to Programmatic would represent a


significant achievement: a 16-fold increase in deployment from less than 30 reactors to nearly 400 reactors of 300 MW each. This comes through government support, improved project management, financing, and contracting structures. The real opportunity, however, lies in manufacturing


innovation which is key to unlocking the full potential of the SMR market. Improvements to current construction methods could achieve 120 GW by 2050. However, evolving to full mass manufacturing could enable nearly 700 GW deployment, representing a $0.5–1.5trn investment opportunity. This 700 GW of accessible SMR market represents nearly double the current global nuclear capacity and would expand nuclear capacity beyond the projected goal to triple conventional deployment by 2050. The shift from Programmatic to Breakout represents the critical inflection point where shipyard delivery fundamentally transforms market access. The shift from Breakout to Transformation represents the difference between shipyard series production and true mass manufacturing; the difference of roughly a hundred to thousands of units per year globally. These two supply scenarios can be deployed in existing and planned industrial facilities, avoiding the need for extensive new transmission infrastructure. North America is positioned to lead this transformation with supportive policies, regulatory modernisation, and active industrial demand already emerging from data centres and chemical facilities. In North America, for example, competing with low-cost, abundant natural gas will also require supportive policies and dramatic cost reductions through standardisation and manufacturing innovation. While Europe’s higher energy prices create more


favourable economics for SMRs, the regulatory differences between member states constrain large-scale deployment. Enabling standardised deployment will require improved regulatory coordination and mutual recognition of licensing approvals across member states, allowing the same reactor designs to be deployed without redundant approval processes. The report notes that each country has at its disposal a


variety of policy instruments to bridge the competitiveness gap between SMRs and fossil-based alternatives. These instruments can be designed to value nuclear power’s attributes, including low emissions, dispatchability, fuel diversity, and overall system value. Policies may aim either


to reduce generation costs through, for example, targeted financing support, direct subsidies or tax credits. Policies may also aim to increase revenues through market reforms, capacity mechanisms, above-market PPAs, or carbon pricing, for instance. The “policy support price premium” on gas prices across announced pledges and net zero energy scenarios reflects the wide range of policy instruments that may be available to countries considering such policies.


The study


is clear that the various scenarios are not sequential stages but parallel development pathways that could emerge simultaneously, depending on the pace of supply and demand improvements. This means it is possible to achieve maximum SMR market access starting today if mass manufacturing becomes a proven, licensable solution, supported by policies that properly value nuclear power. By modelling these scenarios quantitatively, we can assess the specific market impacts of different strategic approaches to SMR market development. The study also concludes that the convergence of artificial intelligence driving unprecedented energy demand and enabling new delivery models, alongside policy momentum and nuclear innovation creates a unique moment in energy history. Commenting on the study, Kirsty Gogan, Managing Partner of Lucid Catalyst, said in a statement: “We’re witnessing a transformation in how nuclear energy services can be delivered to industrial customers. The innovations in manufacturing, licensing, and siting that this study identifies as being critical for enabling scale are already emerging in the market. With the right policy support and industry coordination across six critical areas, small modular reactors can provide a net-zero solution for energy-intensive industries requiring highly reliable, competitive, and scalable, emissions-free heat and power.” With nearly 700 GW representing almost a third of industrial energy needs, SMRs do offer the scale necessary to maintain industrial competitiveness while achieving climate goals. However, serving the 700 GW potential market will require the transformation of the nuclear delivery model from bespoke construction projects to programmatic construction or manufacturing-based delivery. This transformation increases the effective demand for, and the ability to supply, nuclear projects. ■


Above:


A new analysis envisages a Transformation Scenario in which 700 GW of SMR capacity could be deployed by 2050.


www.neimagazine.com | January 2026 | 29


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