DECARBONISING INDUSTRY | SMRS & ADVANCED REACTORS standardised products fundamentally changes the
economics and timeline of deployment. This is the case in the maritime industry with type approval approaches.
● Economic viability: Switching from expensive projects requiring massive government support to affordable products that can compete against fossil-based alternatives. The combination of cost reductions enabled by innovative delivery models – such as shipyard and mass manufacturing – together with market frameworks that appropriately value 24/7 reliability, energy security, and zero emissions, improves the competitiveness of nuclear power and maximises market access.
● Site availability: Moving from a handful of sites to having hundreds of pre-qualified sites enables rapid scaling once other conditions are met. National site qualification programmes can identify and prepare locations suitable for standardised nuclear deployment, eliminating years from project timelines.
● Capital access: Moving from a specialised nuclear financing framework to mainstream financing approaches maximises the access of private capital. Today, nuclear projects rely heavily on government- backed financing with limited involvement of the private sector. However, when nuclear projects become predictable, repeatable products rather than one-off megaprojects, the perceived risks (and therefore the cost of capital) can be significantly reduced, enabling access to the same capital markets that finance other industrial projects.
● Developer ecosystem: Moving from a few integrated utilities with a limited pool of projects to a fully mature industrial ecosystem with project developers deploying standardised products across multiples sites and industries. A mature ecosystem includes not only reactor vendors but also integrated supply chains, skilled workforces, and experienced project developers who can align incentives, apply best project management practices, and improve performance by
capitalising on the lessons learned from large order books leveraging the latest digital tools
By addressing these drivers systematically and
simultaneously, nuclear power can meet industrial requirements and maximise market access. Improvements in these drivers determine the final shape of the supply funnel by influencing the number of projects starting each year, their probability of success, their durations, and the allowed deployment ramp rates and capacity constraints.
SMR market access scenarios The analysis explores four supply scenarios which describe how improvements across the six market drivers can progressively enable SMRs to meet industrial requirements
and serve larger markets. These supply scenarios are: ● Current Scenario (7 GW by 2050): Reflects limited deployment based on current supply capabilities. With deployment below 1 GW/ year, custom-built projects with costs around $125/MWh cannot meet industrial business requirements, resulting in minimal market penetration.
● Programmatic Scenario (120 GW by 2050): Achieves moderate growth through sustained government support and enhanced project management. While maintaining construction- based delivery, standardised designs and processes, and government financing support improve deployment to 5–10 GW/year. Although programmatic delivery can effectively reduce cost and schedule risk, the resulting cost ($90–125/ MWh) and schedule may not be competitive enough to enable substantial penetration of the industrial energy market, limiting broader market access.
● Breakout Scenario (347 GW by 2050): Achieves scalable, predictable, and low-cost delivery through shipyard manufacturing. This scenario leverages existing reactor designs and existing world-class shipyard manufacturing capabilities. This combination of current capabilities and technologies enables near-term deployment of
The leading sectors driving energy demand include data centres. Source: CERN
28 | January 2026 |
www.neimagazine.com
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