BUSINESS IN EUROPE


9


Even in the event of no deal, it’s likely that regulations and procedures will not change immediately - for example, the European Council communicated a series of unilateral measures on 19 December covering amongst other things insurance and road haulage – which you can read here - and the UK is expected to confer equivalent rights which will mean that, for example, ECMT permits will not be needed for EU-registered trucks driving in the UK.


However, there remains some uncertainty about what will and won’t change on 29 March, partly because UK government, other governments and the EU have been issuing stark warnings of the consequences of a No Deal in their efforts to force a deal, and also because the media has a tendency to exaggerate and distort facts. I still believe there will be no or very limited disruption, but the fear of disruption could lead to disruption. For example, many organisations are stockpiling and transferring stock from and to the UK and this is already placing pressure on warehousing capacity in the UK. In the weeks leading up to Brexit and immediately after, I expect:


• a spike in demand for cross-Channel transport- both RoRo and unaccompanied;


• availability of warehousing in the UK will be very tight, especially cold storage;


‘UK government, other governments and the EU have been issuing stark warnings of the consequences of a No Deal in their efforts to force a deal, and also because the media has a tendency to exaggerate and distort facts. I still believe there will be no or very limited disruption, but the fear of disruption could lead to disruption.’


• large movements of stock to the UK;


• exceptional air and sea operations to the UK;


•


increased demand for ferry services that avoid the busy UK ports of Dover and Folkestone.


On 19 February, the UK government announced a six-month delay to the introduction of Entry Summary Declarations when importing goods from the EU, as outlined here. This will avoid the need for hauliers to make Safety & Security declarations prior to arriving at UK borders and, importantly, will ease pressure and prevent delays building up at busy Channel ports.


At the time of writing, it’s still not clear if current EU and UK trading conditions will continue post-Brexit. If the UK crashes out without a deal, there is a small risk that WTO terms will apply and Customs entries will


be needed for all EU to UK and UK to EU movements of goods. The impact of this would be immense, especially at already-congested ports such as Calais, Dover and Folkestone, and this has prompted the UK government to place contracts with Brittany Ferries and DFDS to operate ferry services on alternative routes to take pressure off the Dover Strait routes.


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