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BREXIT VIEWPOINT


BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO


Vigilant asked Jason Breakwell, Vice Chair of TAPA EMEA and Commercial Director of Wallenborn, one of Europe's largest air-cargo road feeder services (RFS) operators, to give us his views on this complex and ever- confusing supply chain conundrum…


It's virtually impossible to talk about Brexit – the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU – and to not use the word ‘uncertainty’ in the same sentence. As the clock ticks down to the day and time the UK is supposed to leave the Union – 23.00hrs GMT on 29 March 2019 to be precise – so much is still to be agreed, to the point where ‘uncertainty’ is probably putting it mildly.


For companies, the waiting game or the great unknown while British politicians and EU negotiators face off, is massively unsettling. While all sorts of scenarios are being played out and planned for behind the scenes, few companies are going public with their plans and most are simply having to refer back to the plethora of guidance notices being published by officials in Brussels and London.


For supply chains, any interruption to the free flow of goods between the UK and Europe naturally leads to fears of food and medicine shortages, trucks parked for


hours at the border and a raft of additional costs, productivity losses and security risks. Preparations to allay such concerns have failed to inspire. Earlier in the year, the UK government organised a ‘practice run for a No Deal traffic jam’ to see how the port of Dover would cope, sending in a convoy of 87 trucks. All seemed to be going well until someone pointed out that Dover processes some 10,000 trucks a day.


So, what are we to think – and, most importantly, what are we to do at this eleventh hour?


It is hard to believe that in a matter of days now, the UK is meant to be leaving the EU and yet we’re no closer to knowing the true impact on supply chains. Or maybe we do; such is the fluidity of the current situation, in the time it takes to read this, everything could be signed and sealed, and we’ll all know exactly where we stand!


It’s still not certain if Brexit will go ahead at 11pm UK on 29 March or if there will be an extension to allow the negotiating period to be prolonged. The expectation is that a withdrawal agreement will eventually be reached, and Brexit will be followed by a transitional period of at least nine months, and possibly several years, during which time new trade deals, procedures and technological solutions will be agreed and implemented.


‘Based on what we know, there is only one safe recommendation and that is to prepare for a ‘No Deal’ scenario, not because it’s the most likely outcome but because other scenarios will not have an immediate impact on supply chains.’


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