It seems that every time we talk about Australia and agriculture it’s in regards to drought. If we look at historical records they aren’t occurring any more frequently than they have in the past generally, but for grain growers and graziers in Northern New South Wales (NNSW) and Queensland, the on-going severity of this drought is the worst in many of their lifetimes.
January 2017 to August 2019 have seen some of the driest conditions for parts of Australia’s grain belt. Graziers in NNSW and Queensland have been experiencing drought conditions for a while. Drought however does not just refer to low or below average rainfall, if it did then much of Australia’s interior could be considered to be in drought. Drought is declared when there is a prolonged period of dryness and the available water, including subsoil moisture, is insufficient. Therefore, drought does not break just because it rains once or twice.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) releases a monthly drought report. Below are the headlines for 2019:
Table 1 JANUARY
FEBRUARY MARCH
APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER
Deficiencies persist in many areas, but ease somewhat in the southeast
Rainfall deficiencies persist; increase in parts of the east and north February rainfall generally low, deficiencies increase
Cyclones bring limited relief in the north; deficiencies develop along the mainland south coast
A very dry month for the south-eastern mainland increases rainfall deficiencies
Above average rainfall for parts of the southeast, but a very dry month for the west of Australia
Rainfall deficiencies increase for parts of New South Wales and greater south-eastern Queensland
Rainfall deficiencies persist across large parts of Australia Rainfall deficiencies persist across large parts of Australia
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
This cropping season’s drought is not an Australian-wide issue. Australia is a big country (geographically the same size as mainland USA) and weather patterns across the vast sunburnt nation vary greatly and also vary depending on whether it’s summer or winter. Northern areas of `Australia’s grain belt (Central – NNSW to Central Queensland) is more dependent on summer rainfall to boost soil moisture profiles, whilst those in the southern states and Western Australia generally rely on winter rain.
Rainfall in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia this winter means that overall wheat production is likely to be anywhere between 16-19 million mt.
JAN-17 TO AUG19: SOME OF THE DRIEST CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF AUSTRALIA’S GRAIN BELT.
For those in the north it’s different story. Patches of good autumn rain saw some growers in NNSW take the risk on low moisture profiles and plant wheat. For some this may pay off, especially if planted on a long fallow, for many it’s likely to end up being sprayed off or harvested for seed. One grower in the usually safe rainfall area of NNSW region of Narrabri-Moree planted wheat on a long fallow and 50 mm of autumn rain, it’s had 18 mm since. Overall this year they have seen 121mm of rain versus their 500mm average. It’s likely that this crop will be harvested for next year’s seed, despite the seeds being small.
As we head into the typical wet season for the NNSW - Queensland grain belt there is little rain in sight, this will be the second year of failed crops for this farmer however for many in the region it’s their third season without a crop and if you head further west it’s the fifth and sixth season. This, of course, has knock on effects along the supply chain, with central storage units in some localities unlikely to open, for some this is the real measurement of how bad things have been and are this season.
NNSW – Southern Queensland is an area that usually produces summer crops like cotton and sorghum as well. With the window now open to plant and no subsoil moisture or rain these dryland crops won’t be planted. Historically when the drought has broken it’s at the back end of summer and early autumn (February-April), which would be in time for winter planting. The outlook is not looking favourable however; a rare weather phenomenon over Antarctica this month looks set to pave the course of the drought over the next few months. This is known as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). The event sees the upper atmosphere above Antarctica warm, in this case by as much as 40 degrees Celsius and it is continuing to warm.
The rare event was last seen in 2002, one of Australia’s driest years on record. The 2002 season was also majorly effected by an El Nino event that had a severe impact on crops. Wheat production during the 2002-03 season was 10 million mt versus 24 million mt the season before and 26 million mt in the proceeding season.
Erin Burns
21 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | September/October 2019
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