EDITORS NOTE
THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE
EDITORS IN CHIEF Eddie Tofpik
E:
eddie.tofpik@
admisi.com Marc Ostwald
E:
marc.ostwald@admisi.com
PRODUCTION & CIRCULATION
Metals, Grains, livestock, Sugar, India’s Economic Outlook and Debt Risks.
Welcome to the October 2019 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, which has a particular focus on a broad spectrum of commodities from metals, through grains and livestock to sugar, as well as India’s economic outlook, and an in-depth look at recent equity market trends, with a focus on ‘crowded trades’ and the implications going into year end.
Gold has regained its sparkle in recent months amid expectations of further central bank policy easing, and against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and increasing EM FX reserve demand for the yellow metal, but will this last?
Global economic outlook concerns centre around China and the Eurozone amid rising trade tensions, but the big disappointment has been the sharp slowdown in India, prompting the Modi government to adopt a series of stimulus measures; the question is whether they will get traction quickly enough.
The dramatic spread of Asian Swine Fever through China and many parts of Asia has been much discussed, but much less reported have been a rising number of viruses or pestilence impacting food production.
There appears to be a rising volume of reports about droughts in Australia every year, but statistics suggest a more complex picture, and what are the prospects for local wheat crops. It has been another poor year for sugar markets, but a new pricing service for EU cash sugar markets is facilitating greater transparency and improving market intelligence, and we also take a look at prospects for Q4 and for 2019/20 production.
Aluminium smelting is complex and highly energy intensive process, for which alternative energy sources such as solar and wind are unsuited. As such the industry has been forced to be creative in finding alternatives in an environmentally sensitive world, and one innovation may yet make Aluminium the ‘green metal’.
CREATIVE DESIGN Simrat Kaur Sounthe
MARKETING Megan Hodgson
ADM CONTRIBUTORS Alan Bush
Eddie Tofpik
Howard Jenkins Lee Heyman Marc Ostwald Rohan Ziegelaar
EXTERNAL CONTRIBUTORS Meghan Sapp & Brian Nolk Erik Norland Erin Burns
© 2019 COPYRIGHT ADM INVESTOR SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED - ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. The information within this publication has been compiled for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. The views in this publication reflect solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of ADMISI or its affiliated institutions. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI. © 2019 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
2 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | September/October 2019
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32
