IN 1997 AN HN51 AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS (BIRD FLU) IN HK KILLED 6 OF THE 18 PEOPLE INFECTED. MILLIONS OF FOWL WERE KILLED IN AN UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT TO WIPE IT OUT, AND IT REAPPEARED IN 2003.
As has been observed in the U.K. the reliance on ‘just in time’ supplies of PPE from Asia, when a ‘pandemic’ is a global issue, and where the last outbreaks have centred on Asia, appear to be a classic case of poor planning. But given the long period of time that this covers, the blame lies with political parties from all sides of the spectrum.
Some of the facts and points raised in the book and Afterword raise both questions and eyebrows, throwing some light on the reasons for the policy responses in various countries as the current coronavirus spread.
Bearing in mind that the book was written between 16 years and 2 years prior to the COVID19 outbreak, I have collated his recollections and projections and included most of them because, while some are off the mark, others are amazingly prescient, and feel like they could have been written today, and help to explain a lot of reactions from the various authorities to the current pandemic. What follows is an abbreviated and annotated summary of Barry’s observations:
Between 1959 and 1997 only two people suffered documented infections by avian viruses and neither died. In 1997 an HN51 avian influenza virus (Bird Flu) in HK killed 6 of the 18 people infected. Millions of fowl were killed in an unsuccessful attempt to wipe it out, and it reappeared in 2003.
Since then HN51 and the more recent H7N0 avian virus have been infecting humans at increasing rates: 2,342 cases of whom 1,053 have died (45%). The fatality rate is high as both viruses bind only to cells deep in the lung making the starting point for the disease viral pneumonia.
Almost all victims were infected by direct contact with birds but every time the virus infects a person, it has the opportunity to develop to bind to human cells in the upper respiratory tract, as per seasonal flu viruses. This would allow it to pass from person to person, in effect it would have jumped species.
In 1918 such a virus (influenza) did infect humans. Whilst not settled, there is evidence that 7 of the 8 segments of the 1918 virus are of avian origin, and the virus jumped species to humans after a reassortment with another virus where it acquired a human hemagglutinin gene, allowing it to bind to us.
In 1918, the world population was 1.8bn, and the pandemic probably killed an estimated 50-100 million people. Today the world population is circa 7.6bn and a comparable death toll today would be roughly 150 – 425 million. Modern antibiotics would likely slash the toll from secondary bacterial infections, possibly by half (So you can understand the fear in Governments at the outbreak of COVID19 and the ‘flattening the curve’ rhetoric).
A severe influenza pandemic could hit like a tsunami, inundating intensive-care units even as doctors and nurses fall ill themselves. This could push the health service to the point of collapse. Hospitals have become more efficient at cutting costs, which means virtually no excess capacity. During a routine influenza season, usage of respirators (in the USA) rises to nearly 100%; in a pandemic, most people needing a mechanical respirator probably would not get one.
In the event of a particular secondary bacterial invader, perhaps resistant to antibiotics, shortages of needles, bags to hold IV fluids, etc could easily render a lot of the medical advances since 1918 moot.
31 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q2 Edition
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