THE GEOPOLITICAL GAMBLE: IMPORT DEPENDENCE AND STRATEGIC RISK Europe’s ammonia dependence now resembles a house of cards in a rising storm—precariously stacked on the assumption that foreign suppliers will remain stable and cooperative. But the war in Ukraine was a brutal gust of wind, exposing just how fragile these assumptions are. As supply chains splinter and geopolitical tensions harden, Europe is increasingly gambling its agricultural and industrial backbone on forces beyond its control.
A growing faction within European policymaking circles warns that ammonia production, much like semiconductors, is too strategically vital to be left to market forces. Yet, without intervention, Europe risks hollowing out another pillar of its industrial base— ceding control to external producers in an era of rising geopolitical volatility.
Key import sources, North Africa, Trinidad & Tobago, and the United States, now dictate European ammonia security. Should political instability or trade policy shifts disrupt these flows, Europe may find itself in a precarious position, reliant on external actors for a critical input in its agricultural and industrial base.
Ammonia Imports into NW Europe - Kt Monthly Ammonia Imports - NW Europe (Excluding Intra-Trade 450 Average
THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN AMMONIA: THREE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
1. PERMANENT DECLINE Europe accepts the deindustrialisation of its ammonia sector, relying wholly on imports.
2. GREEN AMMONIA GAINS TRACTION, BUT TOO SLOWLY Green ammonia remains expensive and technologically immature, leading to a prolonged struggle for competitiveness.
400 350 300
3. INDUSTRIAL POLICY RESURGENCE Governments intervene with subsidies, carbon waivers, and investment incentives, preserving strategic ammonia production within Europe.
250 200
Which path prevails remains contingent on political will, technological advancements, and global energy price trajectories.
150 100 50 0 Source: Argus
“This graph lays bare the reality of Europe’s shifting ammonia landscape. The sharp spike in early 2022 coincides with the peak of the energy crisis, forcing the continent into unprecedented levels of import dependency. Despite some stabilisation, imports remain structurally elevated—underscoring that Europe’s ammonia self-sufficiency is not merely at risk, but already eroding.”
CONCLUSION: THE WINDOW FOR ACTION IS CLOSING Europe’s ammonia industry stands at an inflection point. If energy prices remain structurally high and regulatory burdens continue to escalate, traditional ammonia production will wither. Policymakers must decide: intervene to preserve strategic ammonia production, or accept industrial decline and full import reliance.
Absent decisive intervention, Europe will not merely forfeit its ammonia industry—it will surrender a strategic cornerstone of its economy, ceding industrial self-sufficiency at a time when energy security and geopolitical stability have never been more fragile.
Nico Papworth E:
nico.papworth@
adm.com
29 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2025
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