IT IS TIME TO UNDO THE DAMAGE THAT


WE HAVE DONE. As we embark on the decarbonisation of our food chains, we are lucky that we have significant buffers in our food supply (biofuels, meat and waste) and, second, that technology is on our side.


Currently, roughly 40 per cent of US corn production, 60 per cent of European rapeseed production, and approximately 50 per cent of Brazilian sugarcane now fuels cars rather than humans. Despite the enormous tonnages, biofuels replace only around 2 per cent of the 100 million barrels of oil that the world uses every day. They are an obvious target for anyone worried about possible food shortages.


Not only has agricultural production increased enough to feed the population and fuel our cars, but it has also allowed us to eat more meat. A staggering 98 per cent of the world’s soybean production – and 36 per cent of US corn production – is fed to animals to produce meat and dairy.


Animals, particularly cattle, are relatively inefficient in converting grain and beans into meat. It takes, on average, 25 kg of feed for a cow to produce one kilo of edible meat, and it takes 15 kg of feed for a sheep to produce one kg of lamb. The figures for pork and chicken are 6.4 kg and 3.3 kg, respectively.1


Increasing agricultural yields have helped to lower food prices relative to income. Consumers in the US spend on average less than 7 per cent of their income on food. 2


WHAT ROLE CAN TECHNOLOGY PLAY? Over the past 75 years, the focus of agricultural technology has been on increasing agricultural yields while at the same time reducing costs. It has been about growing enough calories. We still want to produce enough calories, but we now want to develop the right kind of calories in a way that doesn’t harm the environment, repairs the soil, and produces nutrient-dense food.


As Soren Schroeder (the ex-CEO of Bunge) told me, “It is a new revolution: using technology to improve existing production techniques and regenerate soils.


“Up until now, many farmers have not had many other choices than improving yields and lowering costs. There is a way forward now where farmers can get the results they need while consumers get quality food. It is about producing sustainable, nutrient- dense products and connecting the consumer to the farm in a virtual way.”


Unfortunately, we will have to do all this in the face of the headwinds of climate change. This past season, floods, frosts, storms, droughts, or unusually high temperatures have affected harvests around the globe. Most people now accept that climate change causes these untypical weather events.


In the 1950s, UK consumers spent


a third of their income on food. By 1974, it had fallen to 24 per cent and is now less than 10 per cent.3


Low food prices have encouraged waste. The FAO estimates that 1.3 billion tonnes of edible food – equivalent to a third of global production – is wasted annually in the world, enough to feed 3 billion people.4 Many of us in the developed world can afford to pay more for our food. Indeed, once subsidies and externalities are considered, few of us are paying its real cost.5


1 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/feed-required-to- produce-one-kilogram-of-meat-or-dairy-product


2 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/this-map-shows- how-much-each-country-spends-on-food/


3 https://www.which.co.uk/news/2019/11/heres-how-our- food-prices-compare-to-30-years-ago-and-you-might-be- surprised/%20-%20Which?


4 https://www.fao.org/food-loss-and-food-waste/flw-data) 5 https://data.oecd.org/agrpolicy/agricultural-support.htm


6 https://www.amazon.com/Commodity-Crops- Merchants-Trade-Them-ebook/dp/B09NCC4P1V/ ref=sr_1_10?keywords=Commodity+Crops&qid 1639293049&s=books&sr=1-10


7 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2022


As we embark on the Fourth Agricultural Revolution to decarbonise our food production, we must replant our forests, rewild our pastures, reduce our reliance on fossil fuels for transport and fertilisers, and reduce waste. At the same time, we must feed the world’s growing population. It will put enormous pressure on the entire agricultural supply chain.


It is a huge challenge and an enormous opportunity that places agricultural commodity merchants at the centre of the world stage.


Jonathan’s latest book, Commodity Crops & The Merchants Who Trade is now available on Amazon.6


Jonathan Kingsman E: jonathan.kingsman@gmail.com


AS SOREN SCHROEDER TOLD ME, “IT IS A NEW REVOLUTION: USING


TECHNOLOGY TO IMPROVE EXISTING PRODUCTION TECHNIQUES AND


REGENERATE SOILS.


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