Regarding hard-coal, there might be some room for manoeuvre. The new German coalition had announced in October 2021 it was bringing forward the closure of all hard coal and presumably lignite to 2030, from the date of 2038 fixed by the previous government. Already before the Ukrainian invasion, Perret Associates thought such plan was not achievable, or that it would come at a cost unbearable for the German economy.
The Ukrainian invasion has forced the German government to backpaddle fast. The last few hard coal power plants in reserve might be called to the rescue in emergency. It looks likely that the few coal power plants that were supposed to be closed in the coming years, might remain in operation for a longer period, given the competitiveness of coal vs. gas in the EU27 zone (despite record high CO2 prices).
The new German coalition government has a very ambitious plan to have 80% of German electricity produced from renewables in 2030. Amongst other things, this implies building 14,000 offshore wind turbines in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, up from just 1,469 operational in 2019. From an environmental perspective, this is already being challenged. Even assuming the project goes ahead, it would be a huge challenge to build so many wind turbines in such a short period of time and in such challenging locations.
The coalition also has ambitious targets for new on- shore wind capacity, which will have to be signed off at the regional level. It remains to be seen how much of this new wind on-shore capacity will be approved, given the number of existing turbines and increasing local opposition, as the philosophy of ‘not in my back yard’ gains momentum. Projects for new offshore wind turbines off the French, Belgium and Dutch coasts are also meeting strong opposition.
At the beginning of the 21st century, wind generation in its modern form was presented as one of the cornerstones of the development of clean energies worldwide. The fact that after only 20 years it is already facing challenges is a serious warning signal.
In fact, once they reach a certain size, all energy sources face their own difficulties. Solar generation has escaped this problem so far, as at the global level it remains low, if not negligible. However, this industry will surely also face its own challenges (such as the recycling of batteries) once it reaches a certain size.
12 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | Q1 Edition 2022
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