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EDITORS NOTE


THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE


EDITORS IN CHIEF Eddie Tofpik


E: eddie.tofpik@admisi.com Marc Ostwald


E: marc.ostwald@admisi.com


PRODUCTION & CIRCULATION


Central Banks, Sugar, Health, Gas, Negative Rates, Railways, Brexit, Agriculture, Law.


Welcome to the December 2019 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, which as ever looks at a broad spectrum of topical issues. These range from the latest round of central bank policy easing, through prospects for Sugar markets in terms of price and health trends, the Dutch/European gas market, post Brexit prospects for UK agriculture, challenges for UK rail freight, and the fall- out from the judge’s ruling in the Natixis vs. Marex and Access World Logistics case.


Fed and ECB decisions to ease policy in the face of a weaker global economy once again impart an asset allocation bias to equities, given low fixed income yields, but raises questions over stimulus efficacy, ballooning debt levels and indeed financial stability. The Fed flagged its easing as a ‘mid-cycle adjustment’, but would it consider deploying negative rates in the face of a sharper downturn?


Sugar markets remain under a large cloud, but with supply forecasts being reduced and a large ‘short’ position, there may be echoes of 2015. Health concerns have dented sugar consumption trends, but complacency and a failure to challenge false narratives behoves the industry to actively promote its ‘healthier’ sugar initiatives.


As the Groeningen gas field nears the end of its productive life, what are the quality and cost considerations in sourcing replacement supply? The UK’s Agricultural sector faces major challenges not only predicated by Brexit, the question is which subsectors and what factors will determine survival rates.


Anecdotal evidence points to the freight sector creating a lot of stress for the UK rail network, above all via all too prevalent passenger network delays, with a negative impact on the economy. Finally we take a look at Natixis vs. Marex and Access World Logistics ruling, and how it impacts commodity financing, logistics and a broad array of stakeholders.


© 2019 COPYRIGHT ADM INVESTOR SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED - ALL RIGHTS RESERVED


ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. The information within this publication has been compiled for general purposes only. Although every attempt has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, ADM Investor Services International Limited (ADMISI) assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions and will not update it. The views in this publication reflect solely those of the authors and not necessarily those of ADMISI or its affiliated institutions. This publication and information herein should not be considered investment advice nor an offer to sell or an invitation to invest in any products mentioned by ADMISI. © 2019 ADM Investor Services International Limited.


2 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | November/December 2019


CREATIVE DESIGN Simrat Kaur Sounthe


MARKETING Megan Hodgson


ADM CONTRIBUTORS Alan Bush


Eddie Tofpik


Howard Jenkins Marc Ostwald


Mickael Soussant


EXTERNAL CONTRIBUTORS Adrian Marsh Alberto Piexoto Blu Putnam Lauren Judd


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