Figure 2: Jul - Dec Corn Max Spreads vs. Ending Stocks/Usage
100 150 200 250 300 350
50
-500 -450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0
Crop Year Beginning Source: USDA and CRB Figure 3: Jul - Dec Corn Max Spreads vs. Ending Stocks/Usage
USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND US CORN
Planted Area (M Acres) Harvested Area (Acres) Yield (Bu/Acre)
Beginning Stocks (M Bu) Production Imports
Supply, Total Feed & Residual
Food, Seed & Industry Ethanol for Fuel Domestic Total Total Exports Use, Total
Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio Source: USDA and The Hightower Report
Mark Bowman The Hightower Report E:
info@hightowerreport.com
Published on May 31, 2018
This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/ or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of The Hightower Report is strictly prohibited. Violators are subject to a $15,000 fine per violation.
97.3 87.4
95.4 87.4
90.6 83.1
88.0 80.8
2018/19 Forecast
May May May USDA USDA USDA
11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 91.9 83.9
94.0 86.7
1,128 989 160
90.2 82.7
88.0 80.7
146.7 123.2 158.2 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 174.0 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,182
12,314 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,040 29
36 32 68 57 50 50 13,471 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,947 16,272
4,512 4,309 5,002 5,284 5,114 5,472 5,500 5,375 6,431 6,044 6,531 6,597 6,648 6,883 7,040 7,115 5,000 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,575 5,625 10,943 10,353 11,533 11,881 11,763 12,356 12,540 12,490 1,539
730 1,921 1,867 1,901 2,293 2,225 2,100
12,482 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,765 14,590 989
821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,182 1,682 7.9% 7.4% 9.2% 12.6% 12.7% 15.7% 14.8% 11.5%
Poor Yield 88.0 80.7
166.0 2,182
Yield 88.0 80.7
171.0 2,182 50
Low Trend Yield 88.0 80.7
174.0 2,182
13,396 13,800 14,042 50
50 15,628 16,032 16,274
5,400 7,115 5,625
5,400 7,115 5,625
2,425
5,400 7,115 5,625
12,515 12,515 12,515 2,425
2,425
14,940 14,940 14,940 688
1,092 4.6% 7.3% 1,334 8.9%
Jul - Dec Corn Max Spread vs. Ending Stocks / Usage
Spread is highest value next calendar year corn. For Example: 2010/11 Crop Year -> 2011 Corn Spread Last 18 months of Spread - Data as of 5/24/2018
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%
31 | ADMISI - The Ghost In The Machine | May/June 2018
Ending Stocks / Usage Ratio
Spread
1987 1982 1981 1979 1988 1992 1978 1984 1977 1971 2004 1976 1990 2000 1998 1980 1999 2005 1994 1989 2001 2016 1983 1997 2017 2008 1991 2009 2007 2015 2014 1974 1972 2006 2018 2002 1993 1975 1996 2003 2013 2010 1973 2011 2012 1995
54.90% 48.60% 36.37%
26.75% 26.59%
24.94% 24.44% 23.44% 23.13% 21.72%
19.83% 19.62% 19.60% 19.50% 19.22% 19.12% 18.06% 17.46% 16.66% 16.56% 16.26% 15.65% 15.04% 14.88% 14.78%
13.94% 13.90% 13.10% 12.75% 12.71% 12.59% 12.05% 11.80% 11.63% 11.53% 11.45% 11.15% 10.98% 10.05% 9.37% 9.16% 8.65% 8.21% 7.92% 7.41%
4.98% -2.50 73.50 20.25 -1.75 24.75
4.75 5.25
58.75
18.00 34.50
9.75 22.75 37.00
5.50 14.50 28.75 28.00
10.75 39.25 60.50
23.50 7.75 137.00
24.50 31.50 48.50
25.50 27.50 68.75
38.50 38.00
20.75 38.50 44.25
26.50 83.25
15.00 39.00
133.50 44.50
126.75 168.25 159.25
9.00 43.00 3.50
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