Business will need to extend the useful lifetime of products, design them for disassembly, source more recycled or reclaimed materials, change to supply chains that are more circular, accommodate consumer preferences for ‘products as services’ and conform to policies to ban single-use products such as plastics.


GEO-6 has also projected these trends out to 2050. The picture that emerges is that we are in need of deep transformation of social and economic systems to avoid the worst of the anticipated ecological damage. Failing to transform the way energy, food and resources are produced and consumed, will result in deep environmental impacts in particular for populations living in poverty, with frequent natural disasters, much of the planet’s biodiversity lost or irreversibly impacted and coastal cities having to deal with rising sea levels. The World Economic Forum’s 2020 global business risk report[13]


identified environmental


risks as the main threat to economic growth and prosperity (Figure 2) in stark contrast to its 2010 assessment, in which environmental risks were not even discussed.[13]


Business risks and ecological


crises are now more clearly linked, leading to dramatic shocks and irreversible tipping points.‡ § [14]


Environmental change also brings direct negative impacts to human health,** food security†† freshwater availability,‡‡


and . GEO-6 and other major


Figure 2: Top global risks 2012


2013


Income disparity


Fiscal imbalances


Income disparity


Fiscal imbalances 2014


Income disparity


Extreme weather


2015


Interstate conflict


Extreme weather


2016


Involuntary migration


Extreme weather


2017


Extreme weather


2018


Extreme weather


2019


Extreme weather


2020


Extreme weather


independent, expert-led global assessments have shown that planetary health and human health are intimately linked [2], [15]


:


— 6–7 million people per year die prematurely from indoor and outdoor air pollution.[2]


— 60 per cent of all new infectious diseases are coming from animals, a situation that COVID-19 has only amplified. [2]


— About 1.4 million people die each year from preventable diseases, such as diarrhea and intestinal parasites, that are found in pathogen- polluted drinking water often produced by unsafe sanitation. [2]


— Antimicrobial resistance from overuse of antibiotics for medical uses and in the food system is likely to become the leading cause of death by 2050. [2]


Transformative changes to reduce carbon emissions and loss of biodiversity between 2020 and 2050 could have significant positive impacts on the global economy and human health, saving about US$54.1 trillion. [2]


could occur in India —US$ 3.3 to 8.4 trillion — and China – 0.3 to 2.3 trillion [2]


Much of these savings – through lower rates of


illness and death from air pollution alone. The more the climate changes, air and water are polluted and biodiversity is lost, the greater the damage to health and the economy.


Involuntary migration


Greenhouse gas emissions


Cyberattacks


Greenhouse gas emissions


Water crisis Unemployment


Failure of national governance


Climate action failure


State collapse or crisis


Water crisis


Population ageing


Cyberattacks Unemployment


Climate action failure


Natural disasters


Natural disasters


Climate action failure


Climate action failure


Cyberattacks


Natural disasters


Natural disasters


Interstate conflict


Natural catastrophes


Terrorist attack


Data fraud or theft


Data fraud or theft


Data fraud or theft


Biodiversity loss


Climate action failure


Cyberattacks


Human-made environmental disasters


Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological


** ††


‡‡


Environmental and human health are intricately intertwined, and many emerging infectious diseases are driven by activities that affect biodiversity (GEO-6)


Genetic diversity is declining, threatening food security and the resilience of ecosystems, including agricultural systems and food security (GEO-6) Freshwater ecosystems are disappearing rapidly, representing a high rate of loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services (GEO-6)


Adapt to Survive: Business transformation in a time of uncertainty 11


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