6 • Finance, Legal & Accounting


Decoding the budget N


ovember’s budget review from Chancellor Rachel Reeves saw her announce


over £26 billion in tax rises, which inevitably caused dread and panic — mostly from business owners, who have already faced severe turbulence. For those already grappling with the consequences of inflation, the cumulative effect is difficult to ignore. Here, experts reveal how to tackle the numbers.


PRESSURE POINTS Nothing grabs attention like changes to business rates. The government introduced permanently lower business rate multipliers for smaller businesses, but increased them for their larger counterparts. This is a relief designed to support the high street, but the reception has been mixed to say the least. Many now face sharply increased bills because assessments reclassify their properties at much higher values. Such shifts illustrate an emerging


strategic dilemma for business owners, where routine forecasts must now foreground liquidity in an environment of mounting


fixed costs. Abi Hill, founder of Just Starting Out, says: “My biggest advice is to get ahead of cash flow. With costs still rising, small businesses need to forecast early, cut what isn’t working and protect margins wherever they can.” The chancellor also confirmed


above-inflation increases to the national minimum wage and living wage — positive for workers, but a further constraint on margins for employers already under pressure. Lisa Dickson, founder of Caseron,


a virtual accounting provider, notes that she has felt her role as an accountant shift, and is working alongside founders to deep-dive into their numbers. “That might mean modest price adjustments, better role design or investing in systems that allow teams to do more with less friction.” Lisa says this looks different for a scaling business versus a lifestyle business, but planning can manage growth without stress. Abi adds: “For small, hands-on


business owners, the message is basically ‘stability over surprises’. There aren’t many dramatic changes, but the lack of targeted support means the pressure lingers on.”


New Year Business Guide - brought to you by APL Media • Wednesday 14 January 2026


While the November budget might have had an unenthusiastic reception, experts say it provides a unique opportunity. Words: Priya Raj


SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST This year holds hidden opportunities for agile businesses. While the budget may unexpectedly force changes, it’s also a prompt to do things differently. “This budget creates a strong incentive for founders to simplify and sharpen how their businesses operate,” says Lisa. She explains that delegation shouldn’t be a dirty word this year. Some might require additional leadership team hires, while others might focus on a transition to using AI tools. “Don’t try to absorb every


rising cost alone,” advises Abi. AI platforms and integration can help a core team not only focus on value-driving tasks but also aid founders in reporting and identifying pain points. Firms with narrow margins must


consider how price adjustments can protect profitability without undermining demand. “Even small tweaks can make a big difference in a tight year,” Abi adds. The uncertainly leaves some businesses in a precarious position, though this shouldn’t curb ambition, but rather challenge business owners and leadership to plan for the future.


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ADVERTISEMENT FEATURE Ownership transparency risk


James Swenson, the managing director of Ethixbase360, discusses


The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has long set the tone for global export-control expectations, and UK organisations routinely rely on its Entity List as part of sanctions, export-control and third-party risk screening. But recent developments — including the introduction of the BIS 50% rule and its subsequent temporary suspension — have added new layers of complexity for UK compliance teams navigating interconnected supply chains and increasingly opaque ownership structures.


A SHIFTING RULE — AND WHY UK FIRMS SHOULD STAY ALERT The BIS 50% Rule, issued in September 2025, extends export controls to any foreign entity 50% or more owned (directly or indirectly) by a BIS-listed party. Although the White House has now suspended implementation for 12 months as part of a US-China economic agreement, the policy objective remains unchanged: closing ownership-based loopholes that restrict enforcement under current list-based models.


For UK companies — especially


those exporting dual-use goods, supplying US-origin technology, or operating in multinational groups — the suspension does not signal a retreat. UK and EU regulators continue to strengthen expectations around beneficial ownership transparency, sanctions-evasion typologies and third-party oversight. Once implemented, the 50% rule will significantly broaden the scope of restricted entities.


WHY THE RISK-BASED APPROACH REMAINS ESSENTIAL In the UK, a risk-based approach is already embedded in frameworks such as the UK Sanctions Regime, Export Control Order, FCA requirements and the UK’s economic crime reforms. The BIS 50% rule aligns with this broader direction: an entity doesn’t need to be explicitly designated to create exposure. Ownership alone may soon trigger export-control restrictions, and organisations that can’t evidence proportionate, risk-aligned due diligence will face greater scrutiny.


WHERE RISK IS CONCENTRATED Recent BIS listings show consistent patterns that are relevant to UK risk assessments.


• China remains dominant in semiconductor, AI and surveillance-related listings.


• Russia and Belarus continue to present elevated post-Ukraine sanctions risks.


• Hong Kong features prominently due to BIS’s ‘address-only’ shell- company model.


• Emerging jurisdictions such as Pakistan, UAE, Iran, Turkey and South Africa also appear with increasing frequency.


PREPARING DURING THE SUSPENSION PERIOD 2026 offers UK organisations valuable preparation time to: • Strengthen ownership-tracing processes using questionnaires, attestations and enhanced due diligence.


• Automate screening to capture affiliates and indirect ownership links.


• Document risk-based decisions to ensure auditability under UK, EU and US regimes.


• Monitor policy changes, as reinstatement could occur earlier than expected.


LOOKING AHEAD The delay offers breathing space — not a rollback. A transparent, evidence-based, risk-driven approach


SCAN TO READ THE GUIDE BOOK


remains the strongest defence for UK businesses operating across global value chains and preparing for future regulatory shifts.


For further information


Ethixbase360’s enhanced and collaborative due diligence uncovers hidden ownership and sanctions risks. Gain the clarity you need to manage high-risk third parties. Contact: James Swenson at james.swenson@ethixbase360.com


JAMES SWENSON


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