HANGING BY A THREAD? FEATURE


day Harold Wilson: personally uncommitted to Britain’s participation in European integration, but intellectually comprehending that Britain needs to be as close as possible to European centres of influence.


Obstacles to overcome But there are many obstacles to this. Labour’s


election manifesto, while emollient in tone towards the EU, and emphasising the protection of workers’ rights, promised only to retain the benefits of the single market and the customs union and accepted that free movement will end. Labour could, therefore, prove just as unwilling to address the probable costs of Brexit as the Conservatives have been thus far. Much depends on what Conservative MPs now


do, and they are in a bind. Many will want May to resign, but that would make it more difficult for the Conservatives now to form a government. They will not want a Labour minority government, with Corbyn as Prime Minister; and if they can avoid a second general election, they would probably prefer it. May is now seeking to form a government


with the Democratic Unionist Party, in which case, the existing politics of Brexit – emphasis on immigration control and the end of single market membership – are likely to continue, and could be exacerbated. At the same time, May’s authority has been crushed, and she is unlikely, therefore, to have any credibility with the EU, or room for manoeuvre in negotiations. The fact that May could yet prove unable to


pass the Great Repeal Bill through Parliament will not strengthen her hand in Brussels. UKIP has been stamped out, but there is no guarantee its decline will be terminal – especially if Brexit does not now go ahead as planned. And the SNP, one of the obstacles in May’s Brexit politics, has been weakened. The prospect of a second


independence referendum, which did hold a big question mark over the wisdom of May’s Brexit stance, has now receded. And of course, there is the EU. Indications are that the EU want Britain to get on with Brexit. They initially hoped for a change in heart, but now, they seem to have accepted Britain’s departure from the single market. Some have termed the referendum a spat in the Conservative Party that got out of hand, and Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s representative for the negotiations, has called the election another Conservative “own goal”. European Council President Donald Tusk pointed out that the Article 50 clock is still ticking. Britain’s diplomacy with the EU, and the


politics of Brexit, can change, but it will take a serious and sustained transformation of tone and direction from the British. Without that, and if there is a prolonged period of a weak May government or a long uncertain crisis, the chances of crashing out of the EU without a deal, or the chances of an ongoing stasis with no evident resolution, are heightened. n


By Dr Helen Parr, senior lecturer at Keele University. This piece originally featured in The Conversation and the UK in a Changing Europe website. www.ukandeu.com


SUMMER 2017 SOCIETY NOW 17


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