Introduction


I


To be clear, this is not about sporadic growth or reversals from crises (in 2016 Iran and Iraq, after sustained crises lasting more than a decade, recorded the highest growth rates in the world, at 13.4% and 11% respectively). The essence of the insight into growth is that sustained periods – decades – of above- average growth, coupled with the leadership, culture, policies, mechanisms, incentives and conditions to foster it, can solve a country’s problems sustainably and propel it into a different orbit. As is evident from the fi ve examples mentioned (China, Japan, Singapore, Germany and the United States), high-quality and sustained growth as a panacea is relatively robust: it is invariant, for example, to political systems, governance, culture and military power. This is not to say that each case does not have its own context, or that some of the insights cannot be generalised. That may be the case, but they are not fi rst-order insights. Sustainable growth for long periods is and can be a cure-all. If it is not, please provide alternatives!


So if sustained economic growth is the “answer”, what are the questions? And what, or who, moved our growth (trajectory) in South Africa? More importantly, how can we get back to a trajectory of sustainably higher economic growth, realise our full potential as a country, improve the living standards of all our citizens, become a global dynamo (despite our size) and fulfi l the vision of a legion of leaders, both past and present? How can we get on track to reward the sacrifi ces so many have made to weave a national story which is truly unique and remarkable in the annals of modern history?


In this publication, we hope to add to this important discussion from a variety of perspectives, economic leanings and political ideologies. A clear objective in the differences and the debates within these pages is that regardless of how we may differ, or agree, there has to be a national socio-political consensus, a plan that is relentless executed, to get our economy growing much faster. Only this will spur the job creation we so dearly need, help to reduce poverty and improve overall living standards.


We have to move from detailed and continuous diagnoses, and describing and analysing the various aspects of our problems, to sustained action, experimentation and commitment to getting it done over a 20- to 50-year period. This should in no way delegitimise context: our troubled history, the valid issues of unequal endowments, access, incomes


or wealth and deeply contested ways of solving seemingly intractable problems that are presumed to be win-lose or lose-lose.


To suggest a simple “silver” bullet is naïve in the extreme. Multi-faceted, unstable problems require multi-faceted, dynamic solutions. These encompass higher labour market fl exibility, export-led growth, regional partnerships, changing our education system, upskilling the labour force, state-owned enterprise privatisation, value-added mining, less regulation, broadening the contribution made by agriculture and fostering banks that take on a more developmental role. Implementing such a diversity of ideas and solutions will require ethical, visionary leadership teams who can execute.


What matters right now is how fast we can grow, the quality of that growth, how inclusive we can make it and how we can mitigate risks to arrive at this desired outcome. We cannot accept a 1-3% growth as a norm or objective. We have to start thinking 5-10% over a sustained period. The competition between nations, the wanton instinct and practice of using war, economic violence and the dramatic pace of technological disruption are obvious daily reminders that if we do not up our game, we will fail our people, our inherent capacity and our legacy.


It is our time and we need to make this happen collectively.


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