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Continued from page 36 For this to work, a Refund


Credit Note must: O Be equal to the amount paid


for the booking, or less where a part refund has been paid.


O Exclude any rebooking incentive, which must be documented separately and the consumer made aware it is not covered by financial protection.


O Identify the original booking reference and, where appropriate, Atol Certificate number.


O Be issued within 14 days and include the option of a refund, albeit this is delayed.


O Contain an expiry date. The customer can use the credit note to make alternative arrangements or seek a cash refund by this date.


O Tell the customer to retain all booking documentation and proofs of payment. The expiry date must be


within the period financial protection arrangements are in place. For Abta members still to renew bonds for March this remains July 31; for members to renew bonds in September it is January 31, 2021; and for those who renewed their bond in March it is March 31, 2021. Organisers using financial


security other than Abta’s must seek approval from the provider. Businesses must state how


the protection is provided and the period of validity, and notify Abta they are issuing RCNs. The document includes wording to be included in a Refund Credit Note and briefing notes for frontline staff. Abta notes it will review


and amend the guidance “in the event the Package Travel Regulations are amended temporarily” by the government.


‘Expect a sharp recovery and a second downturn’


Ian Taylor


A leading economist has forecast a V-shaped recovery from the recession caused by Covid-19, but dismissed suggestions of a post-crisis boom for travel. Roger Bootle, chairman of


London-based Capital Economics, told a Hospitality Tomorrow online


conference: “The best we can hope is that we get back to where we were.” He expressed optimism about


the UK’s ability to manage the debt resulting from measures to support business and furloughed workers but forecast: “The EU won’t emerge unscathed.” Bootle also said: “I’m more optimistic about leisure travel than business travel.” He told the conference: “There


has been a dramatic drop in GDP – the worst performance in a short period since the Great Depression. But we’ll get a sharp recovery, a V-shaped recovery. What happens after that? Some people think it will be better than it was. I don’t. The best is that we get back to where we were.” Bootle argued: “We’ve seen a


Roger Bootle


massive increase in debt. How do we deal with it? Some argue slashing public expenditure and raising taxes would be good [or] inflation would be good. I don’t. We should put up with the debt and try to get growth up.” He said consumer spending


China hotels show ‘encouraging’ 30% occupancy rate


China shows “the shape of travel recovery” from the coronavirus with two-thirds of hotels reopening, according to hospitality analyst STR. Managing director Robin


Rossmann reported “encouraging” occupancy in China last week after many hotels reopened. But he forecast it would be 2022 before the hotel sector recovers in Europe.


34 16 APRIL 2020


would inevitably be weaker, noting: “Some people are in desperate straits. When the restrictions come off, I anticipate a surge in demand for hospitality and travel, but it won’t be sustained because people have suffered a big dent to their finances. “It could lead to a second


downturn. But we should see demand return in the medium term.” However, Bootle suggested:


“There is a big question mark over business travel. People have learnt to have virtual meetings.” Bootle insisted: “Attitudes to


China in the West won’t be the same [and] there will be major effects in Europe. Borders were closed. People looked to their national governments. The EU was able to do nothing. The blow to the Italian economy will be huge. It will increase the strains in the


eurozone and on the EU.” O A Global Business Travel Association survey in early April found half its members expect travel to resume within three months.


Rossman told a Hospitality


Tomorrow videoconference: “China is the best scenario we have to show the shape of recovery.” He reported occupancy “up 10


percentage points in the last two weeks” and argued: “Occupancy of 30% is encouraging.” Highlighting data for the city


of Chengdu, Rossmann said: “The first phase of recovery has been driven by domestic leisure travel, corporate travel in industrial zones, and quarantined guests in hotels close to airports. Lower-scale hotels have done better than higher. The luxury and top-end has struggled.”


Looking beyond China, he said:


“A short-term decline and bounce- back seems unlikely. Economists forecast a V-shape recovery. [But] in our industry it’s not likely to be as quick. Countries are likely to restrict [movement at] borders.


travelweekly.co.uk


Shanghai


PICTURE: Dibrova


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