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14 COMMENT


of stamp duty-free homes for first-time buyers varies enormously by region. Only an estimated 8% of London homes will ualify, while over  of properties in the North East fall within the new , threshold.


MARKET JITTERS


The Government also needs to address the lack of available affordable mortgage lending that is suppressing the huge real demand for new homes and is particularly hampering first-time buyers and young people’s ability to get on to the housing ladder.


recording of housing delivery than the net supply statistics.


The most recent data release showed the number of dwellings increased by , between September  and September . ompared to , when almost , properties were added, this is a drop of over ,, or 10%, on the previous year and significantly below the annual target of , new homes a year which Ministers have been targeting. A similar picture emerges when looking at other data sources. Looking back to the late 2010s, when housing supply was at its peak of around , homes being delivered a year, the number of homes receiving planning approval in a 12-month period was consistently around , higher  than today. The number of new homes being approved is worryingly low as these roughly reect the homes that will be completed in two to three years’ time. Typically housing supply figures follow the same trajectory, but are slightly behind planning permission numbers. This number is not only falling but it is well below the figure needed to reach even , new homes a year.


BOXING DAY BOUNCE


In contrast to a struggling construction sector, the housing market could be heading for a mini-boom. The country’s leading property portal Rightmove announced that they had enjoyed their busiest post-Christmas period showing there is plenty of appetite for new homes from would-be buyers.


Boxing Day has long been known for its traditional ‘bounce’ in housing market activity, as people’s thoughts quickly turn to what a New Year living in a new home


could look like. Rightmove’s data showed a 26% increase in the number of new properties listed for sale compared to Boing ay , which previously held the record.


early half  of homes coming onto the market were ‘second stepper’, three and four-bedroom homes. Smaller homes, popular with first-time buyers, made up  of listings, while  were larger, top-of-the-ladder properties. But it wasn’t just sellers contributing to this ‘bounce’, as home-hunters were also on the lookout for their potential next home. Enquiries sent to estate agents about homes for sale were 20% higher than Boing ay , as would-be buyers took advantage of the increased choice. And the agency saw the highest number of Boxing Day visits to its website in history, surpassing the previous record set in 2021.


ightmove’s chief data officer, Steve Pimblett, said: “We’ve seen a record- breaking Boxing Day, not only for people turning to the Rightmove platform once the Christmas Day festivities are over, but also for home-movers taking action and getting ahead with their 2025 moves. hile it’s very early days, these first indicators are positive signs for a busy start to the year for agents. A further short-term stimulant to the property market in the first uarter of 2025 is likely to be provided by a planned rise in Stamp Duty changes. This will mean increased buying costs for some home-movers from 1 April onwards, with some buyers rushing to complete their purchases before the deadline. The number of first-time buyers that are active in the market and sending enuiries to agents is  ahead of the same period last year. The availability


This uncertainty in the market, allied to the lack of Registered Providers in a position to take on the affordable homes being provided as part of planning permissions through S106 agreements, is discouraging house builders from investing in new sites and planning permissions and pressing the accelerator on housing supply, despite the positive planning interventions the Government has made.


Neil Jefferson of the HBF, added: “The lack of affordable housing is impacting communities across the country, and without a stable demand for new homes, the industry lacks the confidence to invest in building the homes that are desperately needed.


“Increasing housing will require going beyond planning reform and addressing broader issues such as financing for homebuyers and a lack of providers in the market to take on the affordable housing developers build. Continued intervention from the Government will be crucial to ensuring we have a robust housing market that can deliver for the nation and tackle the housing crisis head-on. We often talk about a perfect storm hitting the housing market, but on this occasion it is hard to avoid the description. Nearly everyone wants more houses to be built, but the current difficulties demonstrate how it needs more than just political intent and speeches to change how construction and the housing market works.


There are very sophisticated push and pull factors in place, with the impact of policy changes often only being felt in several years’ time. Most politicians struggle to see beyond the date of their next election and they demand early results. On this occasion the Government needs to hold its nerve and work with developers, construction companies, financial markets and local communities if it wants to get anywhere close to achieving one of its highest priorities.


WITH JUST 2,260 SITES APPROVED IN JULY TO SEPTEMBER, THIS MARKED A 10% DECLINE FROM THE PREVIOUS QUARTER


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