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Prepare now for a winter COVID-19 peak, experts warn
The UK must prepare now for a potential new wave of coronavirus infections this winter that could be more serious than the first, says a new Academy of Medical Sciences report involving UCL. The report notes there is a high degree
of uncertainty about how the COVID-19 epidemic will evolve in the UK over the coming months, but suggests a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ to prepare for is one where the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to (Rt value) rises to 1.7 from September 2020 onwards.
The authors add that ‘intense preparation’ is urgently needed throughout the rest of July and August to reduce the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed and to save lives this winter. Modelling suggests there could be a peak in hospital admissions and deaths in January and February 2021 similar to or worse than the first wave in spring 2020, coinciding with a period of peak demand on the NHS. It estimates the number of COVID- 19-related hospital deaths (excluding care homes) between September 2020 and June 2021 could be as high as 119,900. The report highlights the backlog of patient needs created by halting non-urgent appointments and procedures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, with an overall waiting list that could stand at ten million by the end of this year. The figures do not take account of Government action to reduce the transmission rate, or the recent results from a trial to treat patients in intensive care with the steroid dexamethasone, which could substantially reduce death rates. The report’s recommendations include:
l Minimising transmission of coronavirus in the community, with a public information campaign for all, as well as advice tailored
to individuals and communities at high risk.
l Reorganising health and social care staff and facilities to maintain COVID-19 and COVID-19-free zones, and ensure there is adequate PPE, testing and system-wide infection-control measures to minimise transmission in hospitals and care homes.
l Increasing capacity of the test, trace and isolate programme to cope with the overlapping symptoms of COVID-19, flu and other winter infections.
l Establishing a comprehensive, near-real- time, population-wide surveillance system to monitor and manage a winter wave.
l Guarding against the worst effects of flu with a concerted effort to get people at risk, and health and care workers safely vaccinated.
Professor Dame Johnson, who is also the Academy of Medical Sciences’ vice president (international), said: “Every winter we see an increase in the number of people admitted to hospital and in the number of people dying in the UK. This is due to a combination of seasonal infections such as flu, and the effects of colder weather, for example, on heart and lung conditions. “This winter we have to factor in the likelihood of another wave of coronavirus infections and the ongoing impacts of the first wave. We have to be prepared that we might also experience a flu epidemic this year. Faced with these potential challenges, and after an already tough year, it would be easy to feel hopeless and powerless. But this report shows that we can act now to change things for the better.”
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