Effects of ASF on pork trade HEALTH ▶▶▶
The discovery of ASF in wild boar in Germany has had a strong impact on pork production in the country – which might even be felt in the whole of Europe. Shortly after the an- nouncement on 11 September, various coun- tries outside the European Union closed their borders to German pork, including South Ko- rea, Japan and – most notably – China. As can be seen in Figure 1, from data supplied by the French Pork and Pig Institute (IFIP), Germany exported 425,000 metric tonnes of pigmeat to China during the first seven months of 2020. In that same timeframe, South Korea purchased 46,000 tonnes and Japan 15,000 tonnes. As a consequence of the ASF outbreak, the
German prices dropped by € 0.20 to € 1.27/kg – a further fall, as Covid-19 had also negative- ly impacted prices as slaughterhouses had to run with reduced capacity. “German exports to Asia will be negatively im- pacted for at least a year,” commented Jan-Pe- ter van Ferneij, economist at IFIP, in the French pig trade journal Réussir Porc. He went on, “It’s likely that there is going to be a shake-up of different European countries in terms of their function.” Germany could send pork to surrounding countries like Spain, France or Italy, countries which in turn could increase their orientation to China. Van Ferneij says, “Spanish meatpack- ers still have export potential, limited only by
their cold storage capacity.” The shake-up could also negatively impact the functioning of large meatpackers in Germany, like Tönnies or Vion, which often slaughter finisher pigs that originated in Denmark and the Nether- lands. These pigs might have to go elsewhere. No wonder then that the Germans are looking for ways to soften the export bans. In Germa- ny, there is optimism that China may accept a regionalisation approach, and talks are ongo- ing to achieve that goal. If accepted, it would mean that the rest of Germany, where no ASF has been detected, could resume exporting.
Thanks to the French agricultural publication Réussir Porc for their editorial input and figure.
Figure 1 - ASF in Germany: What was the situation prior to September 2020 and what is changing?
Exports from Germany towards China and other European countries In million tonnes, January-June 2020
Imports by China from European countries In million tonnes, January-July 2020
Denmark 58.7
United Kingdom 78.3
Poland 70.2 France 47.1 Italy 144.6
United Kingdom 91.4
Ireland 50.8 France 100.6 Spain 637 China
the Netherlands 210
Germany 424.9 Denmark 317.2
Source: Réussir Porc, with data from the French Pork and Pig Institute (IFIP).
game within the fences, effectively creating a corridor free of wild boar. A similar approach was used in Belgium as well as the Czech Republic. The first white zone is currently being created around the southern core zone.
24 ▶PIG PROGRESS | Volume 36, No. 9, 2020
Things are not as easy as they seem though. Part of the white zone borders will have to go through Poland. Although Ger- many has offered to pay for those barriers to be erected, initial responses have been hesitant.
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