Strong global demand and favourable US pricing continue to support US sales. As a result, US NFDM/SMP exports in the first five months were up 17% to 388,209 MT, well above record annual pace through the first five months. Of the major export products, cheese was the only US dairy export to take a step back in May. But with global demand for cheese accelerating as many countries reopen, the US Dairy Export Council remains optimistic that this combination of factors should result in increased US cheese exports in the coming months. “The trend for US exports has really been one of growth,” says William Loux, the Director of Global Trade Analysis for the US Dairy Export Council. “In 2020 we had a record year in terms of volume and dairy exports to our international markets. That hasn’t stopped when we moved into 2021. We had some hiccups towards the end of last year and in January this year due to shipping delays and some issues in ports. But we have had some record months since then in total volume of exports.” According to Loux, speaking on the podcast Dairy Defined, US exports have had a sharp acceleration in recent months through April. “In dollar terms, $ 2.5 billion. That’s quite a bit of volume that we’re seeing going overseas.”
Strong global demand There was a strong increase of US exports in the three biggest export products: non-fat dry milk, whey products and cheese. “We’re seeing a lot of growth in US dairy exports continuing on in spite of the pandemic,” Loux points out. “Global demand is fundamentally really strong right now. China has been
leading the way in terms of overall dairy demand. Consumers in China are just wanting a lot of dairy. Mexico is recovering after a tough year. And Southeast Asia and the Middle East need products too.” The growth of exports is good news for farmers, Loux empha- sises. “Long-term growth for the US industry is where you want to place your bets. Over the past 10 years global dairy trade has grown by 3.8% on average every single year, the equivalent of 54 billion pounds [24.5 billion kg] of liquid milk. That is about twice the size of how much the domestic mar- ket has grown. Although the domestic market matters, if we want to grow as an industry, the international market helps to support us.” Loux expects that US dairy farmers will benefit from increas- ing exports. “Milk production is up 2.5% so far this year across the US. And domestic consumption is growing, but not at the same pace. In order to keep the market balanced, we need to be moving more into the export market. This offers American farmers the opportunity to grow.” Stephen Cain, an economic analyst for the National Milk Pro- ducers Federation, says that China – the biggest export mar- ket for the US – has had an insatiable demand over the last year. “Domestic milk prices are still very high in the country. These are prices we haven’t seen since 2013, 2014. That alone has already been pushing Chinese buyers to the international market. The government has really been pushing immunity support from dairy during the pandemic. And there is still a lot of growth potential. China’s milk consumption per capita is roughly around 15 pounds [6.8 kg] per year, compared to 141 pounds [64 kg] in the US.”
▶ DAIRY GLOBAL | Volume 8, No. 3, 2021
The American dairy market is seeing major export and growth opportu- nities, and milk production and domestic con- sumption are up this year.
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