CASE STUDY ▶▶▶
Argentina: Wheat harvest up, maize harvest down
Argentina’s wheat production for the marketing year 2020/21 is forecast at 20.3 million tonnes due to good prices and strong interest from farmers.
Wheat Production is estimated at 19.6 million tonnes for marketing year (MY) 2019/20. This year, due to good global prices, farm- ers have a strong interest in wheat production and are ex- pected to use good technology and high levels of inputs. It is projected that for MY 2020/21, production will be 20.3 million tonnes harvested from a total wheat area of 6.35 million hec- tares. Wheat exports for MY 2019/20 are forecast at 13.3 mil- lion tonnes, with Brazil as its primary destination. For MY 2020/21, wheat exports are forecast at 13.6 million tonnes, and destinations are likely to remain consistent with historical trends, with Brazil accounting for roughly 6.1 million tonnes. South American markets include Chile, Peru and Ecuador. Ex- ports to Southeast Asia will inlcude significant volumes shipped to Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand and Ma- laysia, while large volumes of wheat are also expected to flow to north African countries.
maize Despite maize having the best projected profitability among summer crop alternatives (including soybeans and sunflow- er), in farms near ports or feeding plants, it is projected the MY 2020/21 maize crop will trend down to 48.4 million tonnes. Exports in MY 2020/21 are projected at 33.5 million tonnes. Vietnam is expected to be the number one destina- tion with 20-25% of total maize exports, followed by other Southeast Asian markets as well as destinations in Africa. Do- mestic consumption for MY 2020/21 is forecast at 14.4 million tonnes. Maize domestic consumption in MY 2019/20 is ex- pected to be 14 million tonnes, which is the same volume as in the previous year. Early in the year it was expected that the Covid-19 pandemic would have a negative impact on the sec- tor in general. However, beef, dairy and poultry production will finish 2020 with positive numbers while pork, eggs and bioethanol production are expected to suffer.
Barley Production in MY 2020/21 is forecast at 3.6 million tonnes. Weakening global demand for feed and malting barley,
higher returns for wheat and rainy conditions during plant- ing contributed to a lower level of production. Barley exports in MY 2020/21 are forecast at 2.5 million tonnes. Roughly half of the volume will be malting barley with the remaining bal- ance in feed barley. Local traders believe that, due to China’s punitive tariffs on Australian barley, Argentina will increase exports of intermediate quality barley to China and reduce its exports of feed barley to Saudi Arabia, which could in- crease sourcing from Australia. The use of feed barley for do- mestic demand is forecast to remain on the low side as maize prices are not as high as barley prices. The amount remaining at the end of the year for MY 2020/21 is forecast to be 418,000 tonnes.
Sorghum Argentine exports of sorghum for MY 2020/21 are forecast at 508,000 tonnes, triggered by recent interest from China, which is seeking to diversify its sources. Sorghum exports for MY 2019/20 are forecast at 610,000 tonnes. Argentinia’s sor- ghum exports are mainly shipped to China and Japan. Larger than expected exports will reduce the amount of supplies used for local feed.
This article is based on a USDA GAIN report (tons have been coverted to tonnes).
▶ ALL ABOUT FEED | Volume 28, No. 7, 2020 25
Despite maize having the best projected profit- ability among summmer crop alternatives, it is projected that the MY 20/21 maize crop will trend down.
PHOTO: VIJAYA NARASIMHA, MANFRED RICHTER, HANS BRAXMEIER
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