REPOR ▶▶▶T
EU Agricultural Outlook 2019-2030
This report presents the outlook for major EU agricultural markets and for agricultural incomes until 2030. Demand for feed will grow globally, creating opportunities for EU exports.
BY NATALIE BERKHOUT S
Alternative pro- duction and marketing sys- tems, such as lo- cal, organic and GM-free will in- crease over the outlook period.
ocietal demands will continue to shape agricultural markets over the next decade, with populations across the EU expected to have increasingly pressing and often conflicting expectations of their food.
These expectations extend beyond affordability to issues such as health, origin, convenience, environment, climate change and animal welfare. This could stimulate the feed market and foster market differentiation. Furthermore, public policy choices addressing the challenges of environmental aspects, in particular climate change, have led to require- ments being set in EU and national regulations, such as those relating to nitrates and pesticides, which encourage the adoption of specific production systems, for example, more crop rotation. These developments often lead to higher costs. Alternative production and marketing systems, such as local, organic, GM-free and other types of certified production will increasingly be adopted over the period covered by the
outlook. Price premiums for non-GM feed products or for products complying with more stringent but more costly pro- duction rules, could help farmers meet such demands. At the global level, supply will grow further — mainly in developing countries — but not as fast as demand in these markets. This will create opportunities for EU exports. Despite higher com- petition, the production of cereals for domestic feed and in- dustrial use is expected to increase slightly to meet steady global demand. Production of soya beans and pulses will continue to grow to address feed demand for locally pro- duced plant-protein products. Feed prices are expected to in- crease over the outlook period, particularly for high-protein as a result of a projected increase in soya bean prices.
Growing global demand for animal feed According to the report, demand for animal feed will grow worldwide. The main producing and exporting regions (the Americas, the EU and the Black Sea region) are expected to continue to specialise and thus increase their share of global trade to meet this demand. The wheat surplus in the EU as well as the maize surplus in the USA are projected to increase. Similarly, Latin America is likely to sharply increase its produc- tion of maize and soya beans to meet higher domestic feed demand, but also to target the demand for growing exports to other continents. The Black Sea region is likely to increase its exports of wheat, maize and soya beans, while increasing its consumption of these products, mainly for feed.
EU domestic consumption of grains Use in feed remains the primary market for EU grains and
18 ▶ ALL ABOUT FEED | Volume 28, No. 1, 2020
PHOTO: FOTOPERSBUREAU HISSINK
PHOTO: HENK RISWICK
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