PUBLISHER’S CORNER Time Will Tell Written by Tony Corpin |
tony@stnonline.com T
he health of the school bus industry maintained the status quo heading into 2025. There is continued engagement around the EPA Clean School Bus Program funding, with about $2
billion dollars remaining in the program for allocation. Some states continue to fund green school buses with a heavy focus on electric. Perhaps not at the level advo- cates were hoping for, however. Some school districts are increasing the adoption of
low-emission and zero-emission school buses due to regulatory mandates at the state level but not without some push back from operators due to range, infrastruc- ture and long-term funding concerns. One could surmise that the federal funding won’t be
renewed beyond the initial commitment of $5 billion. Also, we might see less environmental regulation as President Trump retakes the Oval Office. Time will tell, but I believe this was a once in a lifetime opportunity for the school transportation industry. As we ended 2024, inflation was somewhat under
control, but interest rates remained high. Still, fears of a recession seem to have all but disappeared, and the supply chain seems to have normalized. I recommend planning for increased costs on labor, manufacturing and raw materials from industry suppliers. In its most recent earnings report, Blue Bird CEO Phil
Horlock indicated record school bus sales and backlog. This is always a great indicator of industry health. I like to use the stock market as an indicator of eco-
nomic health, and many industry companies are trend- ing up. Some are also trending down like Lion Electric, which is being de-listed from the New York Stock Ex- change. The company is under extreme economic du- ress and with a drastically reduced labor force as a result. But overall, I am happy to share that future outlooks are positive for many key suppliers to our industry. Another benchmark for industry health is new school bus manufacturing data. As reported on page 16, the num- bers were down slightly at 37,624 school buses produced. Clean diesel school bus volumes decreased, but the fuel continued to be the number one buying choice for fleets at 22,889 units, not counting an additional 89 MFSABs. Keep in mind diesel engines are going to be subject to
more stringent EPA greenhouse gas emission require- ments starting in 2027. This will increase overall diesel engine costs due to the engineering required to meet these new emission standards. The new California Air Resources Board emission regulations for the heavy-duty low NOx emissions standards will play a big role this year. Alternative fuel school bus purchasing grew but at a modest pace. The green bus market share leader re-
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mains electric school buses, which increased minimally to 2,928 units. Last year, school bus manufacturers had forecasted that a third to a half of all new school bus sales in 10 years would be electric. Those projections are being adjusted downward. States like New York and California continue to lead
the way in setting targets to make all school buses elec- tric by 2035 via legislation. Elsewhere could see deceler- ation without clear environmental mandates and fund- ing. That said, we continue to see public utilities taking a strong interest in developing and funding school bus electrification projects. Some transportation directors I have spoken with
have embraced electric school buses and others are apprehensive on going all-in. The price tag has created hesitancy, too, as it continues to range from $310,000 to $450,000, depending on bus type and features. Meanwhile, propane-powered school bus volume
increased slightly with 1,958 units, but CNG school buses saw about a 100-unit decrease compared to last year with 97 units. Gasoline school buses (437 MFSABs not included) were up to 10,404 units last year, but over three-quarters of those units were Type A. According to industry insiders, Type A school bus chassis demand and predictability are better aligned than in previous years. Also, higher interest rates have continued to drive down consumer demand in the RV market, which has helped with more chassis allocations downstream for school transportation OEMs. I see improved Type A chassis allocations from GM
and Ford in 2025, but supply chain disturbances might be on the horizon. Accuride, a major supplier of dual- rear-wheels for GM and for Ford E-Series and F-Series, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in October. Its prolonged financial duress could impact production for OEMs making short-term chassis allocations uncertain. High demand for Ford Transits across various vocation-
al markets, especially with the addition of new factory- installed trade packages, is likely to impact the availability of new Transit vans in 2025, potentially leading to limited supply and longer wait times for customers. Be sure to utilize this ultimate resource guide of data
and contacts to discover new products and the com- panies that sell them. Also, I invite you to participate in the professional development training and networking opportunities we have to offer at the STN EXPOs and the TSD Conference. Learn more at
stnexpo.com. ●
School Transportation News Magazine | Buyer’s Guide 2025
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