search.noResults

search.searching

saml.title
dataCollection.invalidEmail
note.createNoteMessage

search.noResults

search.searching

orderForm.title

orderForm.productCode
orderForm.description
orderForm.quantity
orderForm.itemPrice
orderForm.price
orderForm.totalPrice
orderForm.deliveryDetails.billingAddress
orderForm.deliveryDetails.deliveryAddress
orderForm.noItems
www.stnonline.com


DATA, STATISTICS AND TRENDS


COVID-19 Sinks School Bus Production Despite vaccine development, it could take years for manufacturing output to return to pre-pandemic levels


WRITTEN BY RYAN GRAY | RYAN@STNONLINE.COM


lions of students at home—and off of their school buses. As a result, the school bus manufacturing in- dustry took it on the chin at precisely the wrong time, when new purchases by school districts have barely kept up with the need to replace aging vehicles. The school bus body and chassis manufacturers


T


survey by School Transportation News magazine for the production period of Nov. 1, 2019 through Oct. 31, 2020 reported about an 18-percent overall decline in new units built. While not quite as bad as the 25-per- cent drop during the 2009-2010 period, when the larg- er economy was emerging from the Great Recession, the bus OEMs are pessimistic on growth. A further 10 percent decrease is forecast for the current year. The Type D segment saw the largest decline at 22


percent, to 2,948 units from the previous 3,790. Type C once again won the lion’s share at 25,965 school buses built, the figure was still down over 18 percent from the previous year. Type A also declined nearly 17 percent to about 7,765 units, the smallest number in seven years. A silver lining, at this report, was the greenlighting


of no fewer than three COVID-19 vaccine candidates to potentially alleviate some of the anxiety felt by stu- dents, parents, teachers, school administrators, and society as a whole. Certainly, this industry needs to see all students nationwide back on school buses and inside actual classrooms soon. But even when that does happen, there could be little money available to quickly allow school districts and bus contractors to catch up on their vehicle replacement cycles. “No doubt that the capital investment plans of school districts and contractors are being adjusted


36,678


School Buses Manufactured (Nov. 1, 2019 – Oct. 31, 2020)


he new decade began under the suffocat- ing weight of the new novel coronavirus that paralyzed businesses, shutting many of them down for good and keeping mil-


to reflect the COVID-19 downtime, which for private operators has caused a reduction of contract revenue and for schools the potential risk for a reduction in state aid to schools due to local and state sales tax revenue erosion,” commented Robert T. Pudlewski, an industry consultant as well as the maintenance and technology editor for School Transportation News. The overall medium- and heavy-duty truck and bus market is not expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, noted Steve Tam, a vice president and analyst for ACT Research in Columbus, Indiana. “Clearly, with contractors seeing large cuts in rev-


enue, capital spending has to follow,” he added. “And while property values continue to increase for now, the outlook for state and local tax revenue leaves little or no room for even replacement-level demand.” This despite pledges by Joe Biden to replace the


entire national fleet of nearly a half-million school buses with zero-emissions vehicles by 2025. That is a tall if not impossible task, even with an extensive and immediately available federal grant program. The OEMs would need to ramp up operations to produce, say 95,000 ZEVs a year to meet this goal. That would be a 26,000-percent increase over the past produc- tion period, which saw the largest output of electric buses to date. The near-term result will most likely be an already


old national fleet getting even older, Pudlewski added. “Most [school districts] will grab for low-hanging


fruit, and that is usually equipment rather than structure,” he concluded. “The potential fleet age change as a result of not adhering to past replacement schedules will no doubt bring about aftermarket parts incremental sales growth in order to keep the buses in safe operational condition. A 10 percent to 20 percent annual bus average age increase is huge. Parts suppliers will be reaping the benefits.” ●


18.2%


Decrease in School Bus Production


(Compared to 2018-2019) 47,751 Total Buses Manufactured*


*Including MFSABs, commercial buses and GSA contract vehicles 11


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108  |  Page 109  |  Page 110  |  Page 111  |  Page 112  |  Page 113  |  Page 114  |  Page 115  |  Page 116  |  Page 117  |  Page 118  |  Page 119  |  Page 120  |  Page 121  |  Page 122  |  Page 123  |  Page 124  |  Page 125  |  Page 126  |  Page 127  |  Page 128  |  Page 129  |  Page 130  |  Page 131  |  Page 132