SUPPLEMENT


Contributions to growth by region Europe has continued to weigh heavily on global merchandise trade in 2024, acting as a drag on overall performance for both imports and exports. The main sectors driving European negative


export performance are chemicals and weaknesses vehicles.


Organic chemicals, which are precursors to other medicines, are reverting to trend after a surge in demand during the pandemic. The contraction in the automotive sector raises more concerns due to potential ripple effects across value chains. In European imports, the largest contraction was in machinery, with a substantial reduction in imports from China. This reduction is not simply the result of fragmentation, since similar declines are observed across geopolitically aligned economies such as the United States, the Republic of Korea and Japan. Conversely, imports from India and Viet Nam are rising, hinting at their emerging role as “connecting” economies. In contrast, Asian exports are experiencing a rebound, driven


by key manufacturing economies such as China, Singapore and the Republic of Korea. Japan, however, remains stagnant, with exports flat in 2024 following a contraction in 2023. On the import side, Asia presents a mixed picture. Chinese import growth remains moderate, while Singapore, Malaysia and other Asian economies,


including India


and Vietnam, show stronger growth. risk


In of light fragmentation,


eco n o m i es in


global


su pp l y cha i ns a n d trade.


hints at the role of


“connecting” of the


geopolitical this


South America is rebounding in 2024, recovering from in


both exports and imports experienced in


2023. North American trade is largely driven by the United States, although Mexico stands out with stronger import growth compared to the region as a whole. Mexican imports are rebounding after a contraction in 2023, underscoring the country’s growing role as a “connecting” economy in trade. Africa’s export growth is in line with the global trend. It has been revised downward from the April forecast, driven by an overall revision of Africa’s trade statistics, and a greater- than-expected weakening in Europe’s imports, Africa’s main trade partner. In April, The WTO forecast a contraction in CIS imports for 2024, but we now project 1.1% growth, driven by stronger-than-expected GDP growth. The Middle East had a major revision in its data, explaining the discrepancy between the April forecast and current projections. Europe was responsible for subtracting 1.9 percentage points


from world import volume growth of -2.0% in 2023. In the WTO’s previous forecast in April, Europe was expected to make a small but positive contribution to world import demand in 2024 and a larger one in 2025, but this has not turned out to be the case. In light of more recent data, Europe is forecast to make a negative contribution of -0.8 percentage points to world import growth of 2.0% in 2024, while North America and Asia make positive contributions of 0.6 percentage points and 1.4 percentage points. Europe’s contribution to export growth is also expected to be negative this year at -0.5 percentage points while North America and Asia are expected to add 0.3 percentage points and 2.8 percentage points, respectively.


WTO’s 30th anniversary The World Trade Organization is the international body dealing with the global rules of trade between nations. Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible, with a level playing field for all its members. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Marrakesh Agreement founding the WTO. Since then, the world has witnessed a fivefold increase in global a


trade, which has coincided with significant


decrease and in poverty


worldwide, indicating the impact of trade on supporting economic growth


improving people’s lives.


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