AIR CARG O WEEK


E-COMMERCE


SUPPLEMENT


HOLIDAY E-COMMERCE IN THE AMERICAS: TARIFFS, NEARSHORING, AND WHAT AIR CARGO SHOULD EXPECT


“For airfreight planners, nearshoring usually lowers tonne-kilometres but raises overall shipment count and frequency”


T


he 2025 peak is starting earlier, skewing smaller and pricier. Adobe expects US online spend between November 1 and December 31 to reach about $253.4 billion (+5.3 percent YoY), with Cyber Week alone at $43.7bn and Buy now, pay later (BNPL) use rising again, driven by aggressive discounting and the first truly AI-influenced shopping season.


Tariffs pulling demand forward This year’s policy shocks matter more than any single promotion. The US move to end the De Minimis exemption on many small parcels and impose broad new tariffs forced importers and platforms to re- price, re-route and re-time inventory, especially fast-moving gifts. New levies on low-value imports have been implemented and the scramble by platforms like Shein and Temu to adjust pricing and business models; it also notes tariff-driven pressure on seasonal categories like Christmas décor. Los Angeles saw a mid-year influx as shippers raced to beat


potential tariff escalations, followed by warnings of softer inbound flow soon after. That pull-forward alters air’s “mini-peaks,” raising the odds of last-minute top-ups by air when shelves gap. On October 30, US–China signals on tariff easing emerged after


a leaders’ meeting. one to watch for pricing and timing effects on future flows, albeit too late to materially reset holiday flows already in motion.


Nearshoring keeps reshaping parcel lanes Nearshoring has been steadily cross-border


fulfilment closer


redirecting manufacturing and to consumers, particularly


via


Mexico. While some exporters paused US-bound shipments earlier this year awaiting tariff clarity, the broader US–Mexico production corridor is a structural boost for time-definite cross-border flows and consolidation models that favour ground-air hybrids into the US interior. For airfreight planners, nearshoring usually lowers tonne- kilometres but


raises overall shipment count and frequency,


more small parcels and components shuttling between Mexican factories, US distribution centres and Latin American consumer markets. Expect continued competition between


integrators,


cross-border specialists and belly networks for this fragmented, higher-touch demand.


Categories, prices and the consumer mood The mix is tilting toward electronics, apparel and of course toys, all heavily exposed to tariff pass-through. These categories drive more than half of online spend; multiple outlets note that shoppers remain price-sensitive, leaning on promotions and of course “buy now, pay later” (BNPL.) Tariffs are already visible on shelves across North America:


toy prices are rising at record pace, and speciality gift inventory is tighter, raising the odds of late-season air replenishment when items sell out. For carriers, that means planning for a brisk back- haul of small parcels and RMA flows in January. One often-missed operational variable: returns. US retailers


expect nearly US$850 billion of merchandise to be returned this year, with online return rates around 19%, a reverse-logistics surge that stresses capacity in January and challenges airfreight networks managing brisk back-haul return shipments.


flows of small parcels and


What it means for airfreight 1. Earlier—and bumpier—peaks. The tariff-induced pull-forward plus October deal-events (e.g., Prime sales) spreads demand across more weeks. Keep charter options flexible and guard late November belly capacity for promotional spikes and last-minute rushes. 2. More compliance friction on small parcels. With de minimis eliminated, expect more formal entries, postal-to-express shifts, and additional screening, nudging time-sensitive sellers toward premium air products to preserve delivery promises and avoid delays. 3.


Cross-border rebalancing. Nearshoring fuels shorter-haul,


higher-frequency flows, Mexico–U.S. lanes, plus intra-LATAM uplift for replenishment. Design offers around consolidation, late cut-offs and weekend uplift to win this SME-heavy, time-sensitive segment. 4. Category playbooks. Build quick-turn capacity for


toys and


small electronics (fast stock-outs), and expect last-minute flights for seasonal décor and gift items. Coordinate with retailers on promotional calendars to pre-position inventory at secondary gateways. 5. Watch the policy tape. Any late adjustments in tariff rates or exemptions could shift price points and re-ignite urgent air moves, especially on Asia–Americas lanes feeding Latin American markets.


Bottom line Expect solid online growth, thinner safety stocks and higher compliance overhead across the board. The winners will be those who price for volatility, protect express capacity, and co-design cross-border solutions that keep promises despite tariffs and returns season. What defines these winners isn’t volume, it’s managing complexity per parcel.


8


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24