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HOW RED SEA DISRUPTIONS ARE RESHAPING GLOBAL AIR CARGO CORRIDORS


BY Osman JAMIL


THE Red Sea has traditionally been one of the most important trade routes in the world, connecting Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal for decades and playing a significant role in facilitating containerised trade via sea routes. However, with the rising disruptions that are significant not only in terms of their impact on operations but also in how they are hastening changes in global trade logistics, particularly via air cargo. As security risks in the Red Sea increase, shipping routes were compelled to divert their routes away from the Suez Canal and forced to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times by up to two weeks. The result is a significant shift in logistics that is placing air cargo in an even more central role in facilitating freight around the world. With the disruptions in the Red Sea becoming a norm, the world of


trade across this channel is shifting to a hybrid model that combines air and sea routes together. Before the disruptions, freight through sea was the main source, however, with tensions rising between neighbouring countries, the dynamic has shifted towards air transport. There is a growing trend in using sea routes to transport goods originating in Asia and using Middle Eastern hubs to deliver goods to European destinations via air routes. This was not just a logistics strategy in the past but is now increasingly becoming a mainstream logistics operation in facilitating trade routes around the world. This is not just a shift in logistics in terms of how organisations react to disruptions in sea routes but is reshaping air routes in general.


From maritime disruption to air cargo expansion With the start of vessel avoidance of the Red Sea, stability in shipping schedules was lost. With longer voyages, inventory planning, working capital needs, and overall stability for industries reliant on just-in-time deliveries became a problem. Airfreight responded to fill this need for stability. Demand for air cargo services strengthened for Asia–Europe and Middle East–Europe routes. This put pressure on the existing air cargo capacity and resulted in higher air cargo yields for airlines. The


sudden rise in cargo capacity put immense pressure on commercial and cargo airlines that would find themselves with more cargo than aircraft in fleet. This would result in a bottleneck for freight and commercial airlines, especially during peak shipping seasons. This resulted not only in higher air cargo rates but also in congestion at transhipment points. Yet air cargo operators have their own set of disruptions. The need for aircraft to avoid conflict zones in the vicinity of the disrupted regions resulted in longer flight routes.


The reconfiguration of cargo geography The most significant long-term effect of the disruptions in the Red Sea is the realignment of geography. With the change in maritime routes flowing south around Africa, air cargo routes began to consolidate through other centres. The hubs in the UAE gained significant importance due to their central location connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe. These hubs became the best-suited places for sea-air transhipment activities due to their proximity to the disrupted maritime routes. Ports along the eastern Mediterranean began to receive little to no freight movement, whereas they previously would receive freight movement direct after passing through the Suez Canal. With air routes being used more, the rapid shift in the geography being reconfigured has already taken place.


Operational strain and industry adaptation The rise in demand for air cargo has also highlighted other issues beyond just the availability of aircraft. Airports, which already face a shortage of staff at many locations, also faced a further test of efficiency as demand for cargo transport increased. Faster transport also meant longer turnaround times. As a result, there has been a quicker response to finding flexible solutions. For one, there has been a greater reliance on commercial airlines for cargo transport. There has also been an increase in the number of commercial aircraft being converted into cargo planes. At the same time, there has been a greater use of dynamic rerouting technology to quickly respond to changes in


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geopolitics. There has been a growing realisation of technology as a key factor in building efficiency. This includes a greater use of technology to anticipate problems rather than simply responding to them. Economic Implications for Airfreight With airfreight increasingly favoured as an alternative to disrupted maritime transport,


it has inevitably introduced higher operational


risks and costs. The most immediate implication has been rising freight expenses driven by longer flight routings, elevated insurance premiums, and increased manpower requirements across the logistics chain. Air cargo pricing is no longer governed solely by traditional demand–supply dynamics; geopolitical


risk has become an equally


influential cost determinant. It has also been realised that airfreight has a greater strategic role to play in global trade, not just as a luxury. Air cargo is now part of routine logistics, not just in emergency situations.


A structural shift, not a temporary surge This shift is structural, rather than just a surge. Operators now evolve and adjust to the tensions around the world. Global logistics networks are now entering an age of perpetual disruption where disruption is a key factor taken into account. The Red Sea crisis is simply another factor, in addition to airspace limitations, trade conflicts, and regional conflicts, that will shape the global movement of cargo. In terms of airfreight, this not only means more flights but adds a


list of complexities that organisations have to adapt and adjust to. Organisations are bound to plan their business models in an environment of perpetual disruption. Air cargo companies would need more workers, more aircraft, and a larger team to operate through these disruptions. Hence, the Red Sea crisis is not just another crisis, but rather a


series of potentially unfortunate events that would have a severe impact on trade and freight. In an environment in which supply chains will no longer be able to rely on unimpeded maritime transport, air transport is increasingly becoming the primary driver of global trade continuity.


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