AIR CARG O WEEK


WEEKLY NEWS “Mandates and incentives are decisive,” Cobb says. “EU blending


rules raise compliance costs, while US tax credits, RVOs and LCFS credits drive investment, but revenue certainty remains critical for advanced projects.” At the technology level, policy frameworks remain indispensable


for even promising innovations. While structural improvements will gradually emerge, they cannot yet replace the certainty provided by incentives. “For the foreseeable future, any SAF production will rely on government incentives and mandates,” Beltyukov echoed. “New cost- reducing technologies will come, but they will not be commercialised fast enough to stand on their own in the near term.”


Pathways, ambitions and implications Beyond cost, the industry’s longer-term ambition is fully drop-in SAF that can replace fossil jet fuel without blend limits or operational compromises. However, technical and regulatory hurdles will slow progress.


“100 percent drop-in SAF remains unlikely


and-claim systems will remain essential for emissions accounting.” Recent SAF qualification trends also emphasise the importance of


fuel compatibility with existing fleets. Achieving molecular similarity to fossil jet fuel reduces qualificationcertification friction and eases adoption. “An important trend is the convergence of SAF candidate fuels towards the chemical composition of fossil jet fuel,” Beltyukov says. “When developers replicate the molecular makeup of fossil jet, obtaining OEM approval becomes significantly easier.” Transparency in feedstock pricing is another critical factor affecting


buyer confidence and procurement strategies. Industry standards aim to provide clarity and comparability across different SAF supply chains. “Opaque feedstock pricing can erode buyer confidence,” Cobb warned.


“Industry efforts under frameworks like CORSIA and the


Science Based Target Initiative aim to improve trust and comparability, particularly for book-and-claim mechanisms.” Financial scrutiny is rising, and capital allocation is increasingly tied


for broad


use by 2026,” Cobb says. “All pathways are capped at 50 percent blends pending ASTM approvals, and aromatic content and material compatibility remain unresolved hurdles.” The path to fully synthetic fuels is multi-stage and complex, both


reflecting compositional challenges and standardisation


processes. Certification bodies must first establish general standards before addressing more nuanced chemical requirements. Beltyukov offers a detailed explanation: “ASTM issuing a standard for 100 percent drop-in fully synthetic fuels is only the first stage. Grappling with fully formulated aromatic-containing products blending several synthetic components will take timedelay the second part of the standard, making this a multi-stepyear process rather than something that flips overnight.” These limitations directly shape airline operational strategies,


including decisions on route planning, fleet utilisation, and emissions accounting. Operators must balance physical supply constraints with regulatory compliance requirements. “SAF cost and availability will influence how airlines optimise uplift locations based on mandates and incentives,” Cobb explains. “Given physical supply constraints, book-


to clear cost structures. Projects lacking transparent economics risk underinvestment, even with policy support. “There is growing pressure on projects to demonstrate credible, disclosed cost structures,” Beltyukov says. “Without that, even policy-backed projects will struggle to secure long-term support.” Regional acceleration of SAF production varies according to policy infrastructure, and feedstock access. While some hubs


strength,


lead, uncertainty elsewhere constrains growth. “The US, EU and Singapore are leading acceleration due to strong policy frameworks, feedstock access and infrastructure hubs,” Cobb says. “China has facilities under construction, but production remains limited by policy uncertainty, which could change rapidly.” Yet ultimately, policy remains more decisive than geography alone.


“Most advances in SAF are policy-driven, and we do not expect a significant change in this in 2026,” Beltyukov says. “What will change is the level of scrutiny around costs, which will eventually favour more efficient technologies.” From an investment perspective,


“They favour HEFA and alcohol-


to-jet projects with strong offtakes and policy support,” Cobb says. “Feedstock volatility and policy uncertainty are often underestimated, while long-term demand risk is overstated.” Similar investor behaviour from the technology side, noting


the limited near-term prospects for e-fuels. “E-fuels will not be competitive with bio-based SAF or SAF made from gasified waste for a long time,” he says. “Capital will flow to pathways that can demonstrate both compatibility with existing fleets and a credible path to lower costs.” Taken together, the two perspectives present a consistent picture:


financiers continue to favour


established and predictable SAF pathways, with risk assessments often underestimating volatility.


SAF growth will continue through 2026, but premiums will persist, technical progress will be incremental, and policy frameworks will remain decisive. For airlines, cargo operators, and investors, the path to decarbonisation is clear, but it requires patience, transparency, and realistic expectations rather than optimism alone.


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www.aircargoweek.com


16 FEBRUARY 2026 ACW


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