WEEKLY NEWS


AIR CARG O WEEK


THE SAF REALITY CHECK BY Edward HARDY


AS the aviation industry faces intensifying pressure to decarbonise, sustainable aviation fuel remains both the most immediate lever for emissions reduction and one of the sector’s most complex challenges. While mandates, incentives and public commitments continue to multiply, there is caution that expectations around cost reductions, technology maturity and supply growth need to remain grounded in operational reality. The cost profile of SAF is expected to remain elevated, reflecting a


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combination of limited production capacity, feedstock constraints, and policy-driven factors. Airlines and cargo operators should anticipate persistent premiums relative to conventional jet fuel. “We expect SAF to retain a significant premium over conventional jet fuel into 2026, often two to five times fossil, depending on region of supply and incentives,” Travis Cobb, EVP Global Network Operations and Aviation at DHL Express, said. “Limited capacity, feedstock constraints, and policy design drive this, with scale-up offering only modest relief.” Even as industry players recognise the high cost barrier, there is growing pressure for


greater transparency on pricing structures.


Investors and the public increasingly demand realistic disclosure before backing projects. “Cost is one of the biggest challenges for SAF adoption, and that won’t magically disappear in 2026,” Alexei Beltyukov, CEO and co-founder of Universal Fuel Technologies, explained. “We expect increasing public and investor pressure on SAF projects to disclose realistic production costs before they receive support.” Mature production pathways like HEFA are widely relied upon, yet


they carry their own structural limitations that hinder rapid expansion. Feedstock availability, certification timelines, and blend restrictions all influence how these fuels can be deployed at scale. “HEFA will remain dominant, supported by waste oils and fats availability and ASTM certification maturity,” Cobb outlined.


“Alcohol-to-jet and Fischer-


Tropsch pathways will grow slowly due to technology and financing risk, and co-processing is limited by approved maximum blend limits.” However, dependence on HEFA also introduces risks linked to


feedstock scarcity and slow qualification of emerging alternatives. Even when new technologies reach qualificationcertification milestones, commercial readiness may lag. “In 2026, HEFA will definitely continue dominating,” Beltyukov said. “The feedstock deficit will keep SAF prices high, and even if new technologies receive ASTM qualification, they will not be ready for commercial deployment so soon.” Electricity-intensive synthetic fuels highlight a critical bottleneck,


particularly where renewable power is limited or grids are inflexible. Operators and developers alike face regional disparities in project feasibility. “Power-to-liquid SAF is highly electricity-intensive, making access to low-cost renewable power the gating factor,” Cobb says. “Regions without abundant renewables or grid flexibility face delays and underperformance risk.” The economics of e-fuels are further complicated by rising electricity


demand, making large-scale deployment challenging. Few projects are expected to meet cost targets without significant technological or policy support. “Spiking power demand and the expectation of further growth will make most e-fuel projects uneconomical,” Beltyukov added. “There will be very few, if any, exceptions where the numbers work in the foreseeable future.” Government mandates and incentives continue to be decisive levers


for sustaining SAF investment. Airlines and developers alike rely on these policies to make projects viable in the near term.


ACW 16 FEBRUARY 2026 www.aircargoweek.com


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