WEEKLY NEWS


AIR CARG O WEEK


CHINA+1 RESHAPES DEMAND


04


BY Anastasiya SIMSEK


ONE of the most consequential developments for airline partners over the past year has been the acceleration of the so-called “China +1” production strategy.


Manufacturing diversification into


Southeast Asia is reshaping cargo flows, with exports from the region rising sharply while Chinese volumes soften. According to Aaron Lee of Hong Kong-based GSSA


Extrans Global, the shift has been decisive: “The accelerated ‘China +1’ shift driving ~48 percent YoY SEA export surge vs. ~30 percent China decline profoundly benefited our partners.” High-value shipments, including semiconductors, electronics,


AI automotive components and


e-commerce, are increasingly routed through hubs such as Vietnam and Thailand, where outbound demand to Europe, the United States and intra-Asian destinations remains strong. At


tools rather


than support


functions. Passenger


aircraft belly space is once again central to cargo strategy, particularly in Asia where low-cost carrier widebodies are adding capacity faster than demand grows. Lee notes that airlines in the region are facing “persistent overcapacity (3–5 percent fleet outpacing demand)” alongside infrastructure strain at rapidly expanding hubs. The commercial question is therefore not whether capacity exists, but how efficiently it is sold and managed. GSSAs are increasingly positioned as revenue


managers rather than sales intermediaries. Acting as dedicated cargo channels on fixed passenger schedules allows them to match premium shipments to available capacity. Lee argues that targeted booking strategies can transform utilisation:


“We


optimise capacity by acting as the dedicated cargo sales channel for belly space… delivering >70- 85 percent


load the same time,


geopolitical pressures including tariff threats and Red Sea disruptions have reinforced modal shifts from ocean to air for time-sensitive cargo, further altering network economics for carriers. These changes matter because they reward agility rather than scale. Airlines that can reposition capacity quickly toward emerging lanes capture higher yields, while those tied to legacy routings risk flying underutilised sectors. In that environment, local market intelligence and relationships have become competitive


forwarder ACW 09 MARCH 2026 Higher-yield factors, such far as exceeding typical


unmanaged LCC utilisation.” The implications extend beyond load factors. freight


perishables and electronics can lift


pharmaceuticals, revenue per


available tonne-kilometre while reducing exposure to volatile spot markets. Airlines also gain access to interline connections and multimodal routings that would be difficult to build independently, particularly in fragmented regional markets. The ability to respond to volatile demand is tied to data visibility. Digitalisation


increasingly


is shifting the GSSA role from reactive booking to


predictive optimisation, with AI-supported


forecasting and real-time dashboards allowing sales teams to adjust pricing and allocations dynamically. Lee describes this as a structural upgrade to the traditional model: “Digitalisation elevates our GSSA model with AI-powered tools for capacity/demand


sensing,


tailored to Asia volatility.” Real-time systems


ONE also Record-aligned and pricing influence data operational


reliability. Instant booking platforms, API integrations and


exchanges are


reducing manual processing errors and accelerating documentation flows, particularly for CASS and e-AWB transactions. Yet technology alone does not remove constraints.


Infrastructure bottlenecks in


fast-growing airports, regulatory divergence across jurisdictions and peak-season shortages continue to limit network flexibility. Digital tools can highlight those constraints quickly,


but they cannot eliminate them. The competitive advantage lies in how effectively operators interpret and act on the data.


Specialised cargo drives growth lanes The strongest demand growth in Lee’s markets is concentrated in cargo types that


control and compliance expertise. Semiconductor and electronics traffic linked to


www.aircargoweek.com


AI supply chains is surging, alongside cross-border e-commerce


volumes and temperature-sensitive


rate forecasting, dynamic


shipments such as pharmaceuticals and perishables. These commodities favour air transport not because of distance but because of risk sensitivity: delays, temperature excursions or handling errors carry disproportionate


financial prioritise consequences. intermediaries Such


shipments also reshape airline partnerships. Carriers increasingly


capable transshipment coordination of


managing cold-chain handling, customs compliance and


across multiple


jurisdictions. The operational complexity means forwarder and


handler relationships become part of the commercial value proposition rather than a back-office function. The geography of growth is becoming clearer.


Southeast Asian hubs, particularly Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore,


are expected to see sustained


expansion as production continues to diversify. Central Asia is also emerging as a corridor with rising trade potential. Lee believes airlines positioning capacity around these regions stand to benefit most, pointing to projected regional growth rates and Asia- Pacific’s expanding share of global cargo activity. The strategic priority for GSSAs competing in


require speed,


this environment, Lee says, is to “deepen LCC belly partnerships… accelerate AI/digital tools for agile yield, and build flexible multi-modal networks to capture Asia’s ~60 percent, global growth amid uncertainties.”


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