2026 AIRFREIGHT MARKET OUTLOOK


F


AIR CARG O WEEK


AIRFREIGHT IN 2025: A YEAR OF ADJUSTMENT AND ENDURANCE


BY Anastasiya SIMSEK T


he global airfreight sector in 2025 was defined by pressure, unpredictability, and incremental progress. While capacity stabilised and networks recalibrated,


freight forwarders


and industry stakeholders found themselves reacting more than planning, juggling shifting regulations, rising theft, and


operational congestion across key gateways. Brandon Fried, Executive Director of the Airforwarders Association,


sums up the year with a single phrase: “adjustment while moving.” Despite the absence of major shocks, the industry remained on high alert, shaped by regulatory demands and ongoing uncertainty. “2025 was the year of ‘adjustment while moving.’ Demand was


uneven, compliance burdens jumped, freighter networks shifted, and policy unpredictability—especially around tariffs—forced companies to remain flexible,” Fried explains. “From forwarders to airports, every stakeholder had to recalibrate quickly. It wasn’t a bad year, but it was a grinding, transitional one where agility mattered more than anything.” Although market fundamentals showed signs of in capacity


improvement— particularly recovery and route stability—regulatory


complexity emerged as the most consistent challenge. Multiple government bodies introduced or proposed overlapping compliance requirements that tested operational resilience. “Capacity and stability may have improved, but the biggest challenge


was the regulatory pressure cooker the industry faced,” Fried says. “The Transportation Security Administration (TSA), U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and other federal agencies rolled out or proposed major security and compliance changes, including the expansion of Air Cargo Advance Screening (ACAS), screening updates, and initiatives to prevent cargo theft—often without fully considering the operational and financial strain on forwarders.” Forwarders had to adapt swiftly to revised screening protocols,


increasing data requirements, and more stringent reporting—often with little lead time or clear guidance. Smaller and mid-sized logistics operators felt the impact most, facing disproportionate compliance costs and heightened vulnerability to disruption.


Rising cargo theft and securitychallenges Alongside regulatory pressures, cargo theft surged as a major risk. Incidents ranged from organized theft at warehouses and airport facilities to in-transit crimes, reflecting both supply chain gaps and increasingly sophisticated criminal tactics. “Theft is reaching levels we haven’t seen before. Industry


and government cooperation needs to move from discussion to coordinated action,” Fried warns.


Preparing for 2026 Looking ahead, Fried identifies three priorities for the industry in 2026:


Security readiness “Prepare now for TSA rule changes, expanded data requirements, and tighter oversight. The days of last-minute compliance are over.”


Cargo theft mitigation “Addressing theft will industry and authorities.”


require swift, coordinated action between


Technology investment that solves bottlenecks “Forwarders need tools that improve data visibility, airport throughput, and communication with carriers and ground handlers.”


Beyond these focus areas, Fried cautions that trade policy and


tariff dynamics remain fluid. “Companies must watch tariff volatility and policy shifts, as these affect routing decisions,


landed cost


calculations, and customer expectations.” In many ways, 2025 was a year of endurance—a test of how well


the industry could operate under pressure. Yet resilience alone is no longer enough. “The overriding theme,” Fried concludes, “is that 2026 must be the year the industry becomes proactive again rather than remaining on the defensive.”


www.aircargoweek.com 05 JANUARY 2026 ACW Cargo security has long been a shared responsibility across


shippers, carriers, handlers, and authorities, but 2025 highlighted the limitations of siloed responses. With high-value goods such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and luxury items in the crosshairs, collaboration on prevention, detection, and response became more urgent than ever. While the sector has embraced technological initiatives, results


often fell short of expectations. Fried notes that in 2025, the demand for practical, effective digital solutions grew louder. “Too many hype projects have over-promised and under-delivered.


Forwarders need tools that improve data visibility, airport throughput, and communication with carriers and ground handlers,” he says. Whether through real-time cargo tracking, digital documentation, or


integrated customs systems, the emphasis is now on solutions that deliver operational value and reduce manual bottlenecks, especially at congested hubs. The industry’s renewed focus reflects a desire to move beyond ‘innovation theatre’ toward tools that address real-world challenges.


“2026 must be the year


the industry becomes


proactive again.”


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