NORTH AMERICA F


AIR CARG O WEEK


RISING US TARIFFS: TURBULENCE AND TAKE-OFFS


BY ALHOUSSEINY DJIGO


T


he recent increase in US tariffs is sending shockwaves far beyond China, its stated target, hitting Africa’s airfreight sector, a critical artery for high-value exports and just-in-time supply chains.


Competitiveness under pressure For African exporters, the initial impact is unequivocally negative. Fresh produce such as Kenyan flowers and Senegalese vegetables, as well as electronic components and spare parts bound for the United States, are seeing their price competitiveness eroded almost overnight. According to Malang Diop, a logistics and air


“In practical terms, our FOB price must absorb the shock, otherwise the final


price in the US becomes uncompetitive,” he says. Exporters are left with a stark dilemma: cut margins by 15 to 20 percent or raise prices and risk losing contracts. In the short term, many are absorbing the cost to preserve market share, but Cheikh stresses that this strategy is unsustainable. For the tightest-margin orders, cancellations are already occurring. “One


client told us they would rather sell locally at a loss than risk airfreight costs and unsold goods,” he recounts. Beyond the financial impact, uncertainty has become a major constraint.


transport consultant


specialising in Africa, this external shock exposes a structural vulnerability: Africa’s dependence on extra-continental markets. However, he argues that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could act as a stabilising buffer. By stimulating intra-African demand and reducing reliance on non-African destinations, the AfCFTA opens access to a market of 1.3 billion consumers. “Intra-African airfreight for high-value goods can grow significantly,” Diop


explains, “provided we see improved infrastructure, airport and cargo centre modernisation, and the development of specialised logistics platforms for pharmaceuticals, high-tech products, and perishables.” Air transport liberalisation is a key enabler. Accelerating the implementation


of the Yamoussoukro Declaration and removing fifth freedom restrictions within the continent would materially improve connectivity and utilisation.


External shock as a catalyst for reform Beyond the immediate disruption, Diop sees the tariff increase as a potential catalyst. “External shocks reveal the vulnerability of existing logistical dependencies. This creates a window of political opportunity,” he says, pointing to the need for urgent reform and a realignment of priorities towards continental resilience. External pressure can also reduce national reluctance to share logistical sovereignty and strengthen intra-African cooperation. Within this evolving landscape, Ethiopia stands out as a potential beneficiary.


Ethiopian Airlines operates Africa’s most efficient cargo hub, serving more than 130 destinations, including 61 intra-African routes. Its modern cargo terminal has a capacity of 1.2 million tons per year and includes an IATA CEIV- certified pharmaceutical centre, positioning the country as a natural pivot for reconfigured African trade flows.


Margins and uncertainty On the ground, however, exporters focused on the US market face a much harsher reality. Serigne Cheikh, an instructor at the Kebemer training centre near Dakar and owner of the company ELJEFE, describes a sharp deterioration in operating conditions. “This decision has directly affected our market,” he explains. “Transportation


costs have increased significantly. I used to ship through group orders, but it has become extremely expensive.” Breaking down the numbers, Cheikh estimates that total logistics costs


(freight, insurance, and duties combined) have risen by US$0.30-0.50 per kilogramme. For products with already thin margins and strong competition from Latin America, this increase is prohibitive.


Clients struggle to calculate final landed costs under the new tariff regime, undermining confidence and paralysing decision-making. “A cargo aircraft needs to be full to be profitable,” Cheikh notes. “Hesitant customers make planning extremely difficult and increase the risk of flights departing half-empty.”


Operational responses and practical solutions To mitigate these challenges, air logistics operators are deploying tactical solutions. Kiné Ndiaye, an air logistics expert, identifies shipment consolidation as the primary lever. “Instead of shipping small individual pallets, we consolidate cargo for


multiple clients heading to the same destination,” she explains. This approach allows operators to negotiate preferential rates with airlines and spread fixed customs and handling costs over larger volumes, lowering the cost per kilo through co-freight models. Ndiaye also advocates for more structural innovation. Her first proposal


is the development of a transparent digital platform enabling exporters to simulate total shipment costs (freight, duties, and taxes) in real time. “Removing uncertainty allows exporters to make informed decisions and restores confidence,” she says. She further calls for closer partnerships with customs authorities, including


green lanes and pre-clearance systems for approved African exporters. Reduced waiting times are particularly critical for perishables, where delays translate directly into value loss. Ndiaye underlines the commercial


importance of branding. Promoting


“Made in Africa” as a premium label can help justify higher final prices. Clear communication around origin and quality may partially offset the tariff impact by repositioning African products as differentiated rather than purely price-driven.


From shock to strategic rebalancing Rising US tariffs represent a clear short-term disruption for African airfreight and export-oriented industries. Margins are under pressure, planning uncertainty is increasing, and some trade flows are already contracting. Yet the same shock is forcing long-overdue strategic questions to the surface. If leveraged effectively, the AfCFTA, air transport liberalisation, cargo


hub development, and operational innovation could collectively reduce Africa’s exposure to external trade policy shifts. The challenge now is execution. Without coordinated reform and investment, tariffs will remain a headwind. With them, they may yet become the trigger for a more resilient, integrated, and self-sustaining African airfreight ecosystem.


www.aircargoweek.com 02 FEBRUARY 2026 ACW


“Removing uncertainty allows


exporters to


make informed decisions.”


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