4 ‘Tis the season “Endless Summer” may have seemed idyllic to the Beach
Boys, but two years of record fire seasons have left BC farmers more than a bit choked. Smoke is the most obvious reason, but diminished yields are another. Reports continue to appear in this paper and at crop insurance offices of losses attributed to natural calamities and reduced productivity in barns and fields as a result of environmental factors. Honey producers almost universally reported a decline in productivity this year and many row crops saw maturity delayed. Pest pressure increased, with wasps and armyworms making themselves felt. One rarely hears people cheering the end of summer, and less so (especially at northern latitudes) praising winter’s arrival, but farmers can be forgiven for doing so right now. With flows through the Skeena and smaller rivers dropping to levels not seen for more than a generation, summer had to end for winter to begin its annual work of renewing the snowpack, the water table and letting everything take a break. To everything there is a season; a time to plant, and a time
to harvest, and also a time to enjoy the harvest, and the results of our work. ‘Tis the season, as the carol reminds us. Hop and grape producers report good crops, tree fruit growers also saw healthy yields. We can eat, drink and be merry. Planning for the new year won’t stop, of course. There are plants to be ordered, workers to hire and deals to be done. While all that’s going on, drought ratings in the north are falling with the winter rains and snows. The average farmer knows the climate isn’t what it once was, but the next generation is showing it has the skills to adapt. And isn’t that a core part of the approaching Christmas season? There may be nothing new under the sun, but
COUNTRY LIFE IN BC • DECEMBER 2018
the future always hinges on a child. With the end of another year, we can be grateful for the opportunities it’s
given us, and find hope in the new entrants keen to pursue opportunities in an ever-changing world.
Time to address climate change head-on
“It’s not climate change — it’s everything change.” This succinct title of a 2015 essay by Margaret Atwood nicely sums up our current reality. And it’s not like no one saw it coming.
The greenhouse effect of
The Back Forty BOB COLLINS
earth’s atmosphere was first proposed by French scientist Jean Fournier in 1824. In 1896, Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius identified rising levels of atmospheric CO2, and in 1938, rising CO2
was definitively linked to rising temperatures. In 1967, the first reliable computerized climate simulation predicted the possibility of a 2.3°C global temperature rise if atmospheric CO2 doubled from pre-industrial levels, and the alarm bells started sounding. Denial and controversy followed, giving rise to decades of often acrimonious debate about whether the climate was really changing, and even if it was, how could we be sure that CO2 was the culprit, and even if it was, the blame could not lie with human activities, and even if it could, no response was required because surely the Climate Fairy would arrive in the nick-of-time to make everything alright.
And what do all those scientists really know, anyhow? Finally, the sheer weight of climate science has moved us on. Everything is
changing. Many of the predicted climate change outcomes are beyond debate; they are occurring at a pace that makes their original prognosis appear decidedly optimistic. Now what? There is global consensus the rising level of atmospheric CO2 needs to be curbed immediately but there is no consensus – global or otherwise – on how to make that happen. In 1960, atmospheric CO2 was 315 ppm. It has now reached 406 ppm and it is rising steadily. Over the past 20 years, it has blown through one target after another and – good intentions and the Climate Fairy notwithstanding – there is
no likelihood that the rate of increase will slow anytime soon. Small wonder there is no global consensus on what action to take, considering all 10 provinces in Canada are unable to agree on a basic plan of action in their own country. Ontario has opted out of the federal carbon tax scheme altogether – to be replaced by what, we might ask, buck a beer? The Climate Fairy? Rhetoric and spin-doctoring are not going to stop the slow-moving train
wreck that passes for meaningful climate action, here or abroad. The process is badly derailed and there is little to be gained awaiting its arrival while climate change picks up speed.
Challenges, opportunities
The effects of climate change will fall comprehensively on agriculture. All farmers and ranchers need to join forces with their peers to understand how the climate will probably change, what the challenges will be, and how to mitigate the change and meet the challenges. Fortunately, Canadian producers can access detailed climate information online at [
https://climateatlas.ca/topic/agriculture]. The climate atlas was launched nation-wide in April 2018. It contains detailed data and modeling for every region of Canada and provides a sobering picture of what is coming: annual +30° days in Kelowna are projected to increase from 21 to 42 by 2040; Medicine Hat will see 55 annual +30 ° days by 2050. There is information and analysis specific to agriculture that provides a clear
picture of what we will be dealing with. Thus informed, producers can apply the climate model to their operations and begin to identify their specific challenges or opportunities and how they might best embrace them. Working together, producers could identify and promote local actions to mitigate local impacts. Time is short and the stakes are high. There is no Climate Fairy but there is a determined, resilient and experienced agricultural community. It’s time to close ranks and prepare for what’s coming. Bob Collins raises beef cattle and grows produce on his farm in the Alberni Valley.
Publisher Cathy Glover
The agricultural news source in British Columbia since 1915 Vol. 104 No. 12. DECEMBER 2018
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