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All of the above could have impacts for Members, although


those who can offer increased warehouse storage space might have a commercial opportunity. Also, it is clear that those companies with experience of trading with countries outside the EU will be at a significant advantage compared with those who have traded only with the EU. At this point, it is relevant to point Members in the direction of the numerous Technical Notices issued by government which highlight the impact of a No Deal scenario.


Possible changes to business patterns stemming from Brexit Clearly some Members are engaged in detailed contingency planning, with EU forwarders investigating the opportunities to expand into the UK and the UK forwarders planning to open their own offices in the EU. This is one of the more ambitious options being considered that has been brought to BIFA’s attention. When drawing up a plan, Members should consider the


December 2018


extent of their exposure to EU trade, and if it declines how easily it will be to re-deploy resources to other forwarding/logistics related activities. For instance, much is made of the UK driver shortage. So if there is a decline in cross-Channel trade, can drivers and vehicles be diverted to the domestic markets? It is highly unlikely that the status quo is sustainable in the


long term; even a favourable transition arrangement will only delay change, the nature and extent of which is unclear. From speaking to Members and reading the press, it is thought that there is likely to be some decline in traffic moving through the Dover Straits. Impacts are likely to be: • Consolidation of individual shipments into larger consignments,


• Decline in e-commerce shipments, • Greater use of unaccompanied trailers, • Changes to routes being used with more cargo being shipped directly to more northerly ports, • Increased numbers of airfreight movements,


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It is highly unlikely that the status quo is sustainable in the long term; even a favourable transition arrangement will only delay change


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