SCANDINAVIA\\\ >> 14


relatively balanced


which lends itself to two-way


fl ows for freight operators. However, these days the


service sector accounts for the lion’s share of activity, as befi ts a highly developed west European nation.


Greater Danes


OECD says Denmark’s economy is expected to grow at close to 2% in 2018 and 2019, supported by


accelerating


Issue 8 2018 - Freight Business Journal


fact that has led to some criticism that it is vulnerable to future price fl uctuations. The Government has in fact been attempting to diversify the economic base and encourage small business. That said, Norwegians cannot


really complain. The country is arguably one of the wealthiest major nations in the world, with gross domestic product per capita above $70,000. Fishing was the other


private


consumption and an improved external environment. However, wage and price infl ation are expected to rise as labour shortages increase, it warns. The country’s trade balance is expected to decrease. Like Sweden, Denmark is


a strong, steady performer on the world economic stage. While its 39th place in the world economies may not sound impressive, it has achieved this with a tiny pinprick of a population of under 6 million – about the same size as Scotland’s – and also without any major North Sea energy revenue to boost the fi gures. GDP growth is increasingly


supported by strong domestic demand and, with very low unemployment, labour shortages have been reported in the construction sector and are increasing across the rest of the economy. In contrast to Sweden, OECD


sees a “solid” housing market. The country has a very broad-


based economy, with earnings from the traditional staples of bacon, butter and energy now outnumbered by those from the country’s very diverse engineering sector and services. Shipping, and more particularly the mighty AP Moller Group, fi gures prominently in the latter sector. Focus Economics, while that


concluding strong


fundamentals “should drive the Danish economy nicely into 2019” does see some risk from a possible downturn in global trade and uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations – the UK is a major trading partner.


Oiling the wheels of Norway’s growth


Norway is the odd-man-out of the three major Scandinavian economies. It is highly dependent on North Sea Oil, a


major staple of the Norwegian economy, although in percentage terms this is now dwarfed by the huge revenues from the North Sea. However, the catches landed on the country’s quaysides have helped Oslo airport become Europe’s


leading hub for full-


freighter aircraſt . Growth was strong over the


summer, says Focus Economics, due to expansion in – mostly oil – exports. The picture for the so-called ‘mainland’ economy, which excludes oil and its transportation, was more mixed. Like Sweden, Norway faces political


some uncertainty


with the minority coalition government depending


on


other parties’ support to pass its budget. OECD too sees growth in the


economy remaining robust in the fi rst half of 2018, boosted by the increase in the global oil price but then reined back somewhat by a slowdown in construction. The already low unemployment rate will decrease further, but price and wage infl ation will rise. It adds that, in the longer term,


Norway will need to continue to diversify away from oil if it is to maintain its admirably equitable spread of wealth and inclusive social policies.


The Finnish white-knuckle ride


Finland’s economy has had a roller-coaster ride lately. With the emergence of Nokia as the world’s leading maker of mobile phones in the early years of the 21st Century, the country had seemingly fulfi lled its desire to diversify away from traditional staples such as forestry and heavy engineering. However, Nokia hit hard times


in the Great Recession and the country’s


GDP plummeted


accordingly. The one-time tech giant has though since staged a recovery, and Finland’s economy is back on track again. The Bank of Finland is forecasting


confi dently GDP


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growth of 2.9% this year which will continue at around 2% a year over the next couple of years, fuelled by strong export demand and rising productivity. Exports have been helped by the continued strong global cyclical and low wage increases of recent years, which have served to improve the country’s export competitiveness. The Bank says that Finland’s growth


export accelerated to 7.8% in 2017, bolstered by


15


domestic business investments in recent years. Although this will decline slightly, it is expected to remain robust, at approximately 4%, helped by the strong global economy. Finland has in fact gained


market share, says the bank, with its exports increasing by 8%, faster than export markets as a whole. However, export volumes were still 3% below 2008 levels, suggesting that there may be room for further increases.


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