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ULCVs set to dominate Asia-North Europe trade


The Asia-North Europe trade will be almost entirely operated by ultra-large container vessels (ULCVs) during the course of the next three years. But this will leave shippers with significantly fewer


sailings each week. According to new research from SeaIntel, there will


be 90 vessels of 14,000 teu-plus delivered to carriers over the next three years, which means that by 2020, this size vessel will account for 88% of the ships operating between Asia and Europe. And if all the newbuilds are delivered according to


schedule, by then 125 vessels on the Asia-North Europe trade would be 18,000 teu and above. SeaIntel added that if demand remains at current


levels, the delivery schedule would mean that the trade’s entire needs could be covered by just 15 weekly services deploying 165 vessels across the three main deepsea alliances. “Assuming a healthy 5% demand growth in the


coming three years, and also assuming the same degree of vessel utilisation as seen in 2017, it will essentially force each of the alliances to eliminate one of their current services,” it said.


It means carriers have the


potential to order another 14 18,000 teu vessels – pushing the forecast level of 125 18,000 teu-plus


vessels in 2020 to the 165 required to run 15 services, making the trade entirely mega-ULCV-operated. In turn, that would likely mean the trade’s existing


14,000-17,000 teu vessels cascading to the Asia- Mediterranean trade. But it is doubtful whether it could cope with that sort of influx, as that would mean that 84% of vessels on that trade would be 14,000 teu-plus, “and the trade lane will be entirely unable to absorb more than a small portion of the spillover from the North European trade”. Alan Murphy, SeaIntel chief executive, added: “Of


course, 18,000 teu-plus vessels can also be phased directly into the Mediterranean trade; there is nothing preventing this. From that perspective, the field is wide open for more orders of 18,000 teu-plus tonnage. “However, this would further exacerbate the cascading issues.”


This article first appeared on The Loadstar and BIFA is grateful for permission to reprint it. https://theloadstar.co.uk


Festival of nine lessons and carols


Wednesday, 6 December, 2017


This annual Carol Service is quite an occasion and the Mission for Seafarers is offering BIFA Members a discounted rate of £28 per ticket if BIFA Membership is


6


mentioned when booking. The event begins at


1800 hours on Wednesday, 6 December, 2017, at St Michael


Paternoster Royal, College


Hill, London, EC4R 2RL. The service will be followed by a festive drinks reception at nearby


Skinners’ Hall until 2100, where guests will have the opportunity to meet the Mission for Seafarers President, HRH The Princess Royal. Please contact: Joseph O’Neill


on 020 7246 2939 or joseph.oneill@missionto seafarers.org


OBITUARY Bill Sullivan


The founder member of Allways International Freight Forwarding Limited, Bill Sullivan, passed away on 15 October. Born William Charles Sullivan,


and known by his friends and colleagues as “Bill”, he was instrumental in one of the first groupage cargo services to Russia via Lithuania in the late 1980s early 1990s. This was the backbone of work to open the CIS and Eastern Europe to regular traffic. Bill was never daunted by the


challenges imposed by governments and pioneered on the edge of the European Union with his transport business into difficult areas.


Don’t keep it


to yourself Remember to circulate BIFAlink to your colleagues. Not your copy of BIFAlink? – register for your own copy by contacting Jane Robinson in membership (j.robinson@bifa.org). BIFAlink is free to BIFA member companies.


December 2017


Courtesy of the Port of Felixstowe


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