Crop storage
Brexit to dominate Grain Market Outlook conference
T
he impact of Brexit on UK grain markets and the im- plications for UK farmers and processors will be discussed at this month’s AHDB’s Grain Market Outlook conference 2017. Due to be held on Wednes-
day, 11 October, at the Grand Connaught Rooms, London, this year’s outlook conference follows a challenging season for growers. It also comes amid continued po- litical uncertainty over Brexit and the value of sterling. In terms of currency, there is continued speculation that the pound could be at parity with the Euro over the coming months, says AHDB lead analyst Jack Watts. “With so much going on at home, the conference will have a more domestic approach than usual.”
On a related theme, the
strength of the Euro against the dollar is an important talking point, not least because the EU is one of the world’s largest wheat exporters. At the same time, oil- seed rape prices have risen for producers, supported by curren- cy movements. Modelling work shows that the global outlook for cereals and oilseeds is likely to become even more important to the UK. Wheat stocks available in the UK were around 50% down at the end of June year-on-year, according to data from Defra. “We know that it’s been a chal- lenging growing season and har- vest. The market will be waiting keenly to see what that meant for both yield and quality, as well as the implications for import de- mand, particularly for milling wheat.”
The conference will examine the post-Brexit possibility of in- creasing reliance on the domes- tic crop. “Add in the tariff implica- tions in different Brexit scenarios and we could see the UK increas- ingly oscillating between import and export as traditional trade fl ows of cereals alter.” Mr Watts says the conference will also see AHDB launch its lat- est Brexit analysis, assessing the impact of different Brexit scenar- ios on different farm types – in a bid to give farmers more detailed information on how it might af- fect their businesses. “We’ll be looking at Brexit from a business sector, size and performance perspective. Wheth-
Brexit will have a big impact on grain markets, says Jack Watts
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