Technical Paper
www.ireng.org
Current trends and technology solutions for the global aluminium processing sector
Mirco Pavoni, Morgan Advanced Materials
Introduction
As the second largest metals market in the world, the aluminium sector currently has a total value of around £45 billion.
Demand for aluminium continues to grow, not least in the automotive sector, where ever stricter regulation on emissions is behind a continued drive to reduce weight.
Meanwhile, the rising prices of potential alternatives such as zinc and copper continue to make aluminium an attractive option for specifiers across a broad spectrum of sectors. Aluminium prices currently remain low currently due to oversupply and stockpiling, although modest output cuts have seen prices start to rise slightly in recent times.
Global demand estimates are for roughly 40 million tons of aluminium production by 2025 – meaning 230 million additional tons of bauxite must be extracted and processed. Analysts predict that the increased demand will mainly be fuelled by emerging economies such as India and China.
Production by the end of 2016 is expected to be 59 million tonnes with consumption slightly higher, making modest inroads into stockpiles. However, prices are likely to remain depressed, perhaps even as low as US$1,400, though they may rise towards the end of the year.
Global aluminium production in the first seven months of 2015 averaged just over 158,000 tonnes per day (tpd) compared with 143,300 tpd during the same period in 2014, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). However, Chinese production fell to 87,871 tpd from 91,867 tpd in June. A long-term drop in Chinese output would be the key to creating the
type of supply deficit which would have a real impact on the stock burden.
Demand is likely to remain robust as it is still one of the metals with the most rapidly growing demand profiles.
Market summary by region Currently accounting for 8% of global aluminium production, the use of aluminium in India is dominated by the country’s automotive sector, with recycling also growing very rapidly. What the rapid growth in the automotive sector has created is an increased focus on quality, particularly in the area of castings, alongside a need to minimise costs by reducing total cost of ownership.
The world’s largest single market, China produces 43% of global aluminium yet remains a net importer, consuming 44% of all aluminium used worldwide despite not being a market-driven economy. Rapid growth in the Chinese economy led to considerable overcapacity and the construction of many new smelting facilities, some of which have now been agglomerated. This has been accompanied by a drive by the Chinese government to do away with the less economical and higher-polluting facilities.
China’s automotive market has grown rapidly but this growth has slowed somewhat in recent years. Prices have suffered to a degree, partly due to overcapacity and excess domestic stock levels, but recovery is under way, bringing some smelters back on-line.
An increasingly important area of the Chinese market is the production of high-purity aluminium for the electronics industry. While growth in this area has slowed slightly, demand is strong for products and technologies able
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ENGINEER THE REFRACTORIES
May 2016 Issue
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