PUBLISHER'S COMMENTARY
Upward Economic Trend WRITTEN BY TONY CORPIN |
TONY@STNONLINE.COM
took over about 12 years ago, I’ve seen many positive and negative trends in our industry. Te direction I see today is the undeniable, upward economic trajectory of the yellow school bus industry. Te trend of new bus manufacturing is great
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measurement of our industry’s overall health. And I’m happy to report it’s been another positive year of growth with 6.5-percent bump over 2016-2017 in new bus production. Our survey of school bus OEMs reports about 37,436 Type C and Type D school buses were built alongside with 9,694 Type A buses for a total of 46,130. Tese figures represent the most recent production cycle that ended on Oct. 31. In addition, alternative energy school bus purchases
continued upward, but volumes were relatively flat over the previous year. Propane buses remain the leader with 2,750 units produced, followed by CNG at 250 units and electric buses at about 150 units. Some industry insiders I spoke with said the 11,250
gasoline school buses manufactured had cannibalized these alternative energy school bus options. Tis con- tinued trend might also occur again with all the new electric school bus technology entering the market- place over the next two years. Per the U.S. Department of Energy, diesel fuel
prices have held steady, from a low of $2.465 reported on June 26 to a high of $2.926 reported on Nov. 27. Fuel is trending higher partly because of reductions in OPEC production and overall global fuel supply volumes compared to demand. Fuel is volatile com- modity, but I believe our industry will see diesel fuel prices go higher in 2018. Granted, school districts and private contractors
generally take advantage of bulk purchasing rates, but I wouldn’t turn a blind eye to this line item. Tis in- cludes the price of propane and CNG becoming more of a factor. Headlines about energy and fuel costs were prominent again in 2017, and I’d expect to see more of the same this year. And if diesel prices continue to rise, I predict alternative fuels only taking a bigger foothold. Plus, the school transportation industry is poised to take full advantage of the pending VW Mitigation
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ince I was a young child I’ve been around the school bus industry watching my parents produce our publications and conferences. I’ve also seen all the ups and downs. Since I
Trust Fund allocation towards alternative energy school buses. So, “Where do I see school transportation headed
next year?” I’m hearing positive indicators from around the industry. During the recent the NAS- DPTS Annual Conference in Columbus, Ohio, Blue Bird, Tomas Built Buses and IC Bus said they antici- pated between 3- and 7-percent growth in the new bus build, depending on the reported date range of their production cycles. Te real estate market maintaining strong growth
and higher values should also equal more funding into education, though exactly how much funding, if any, differs by region. Property taxes are always a huge funding mechanism for operating revenues of municipalities, school districts and transportation departments. According to the latest report by the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales increased for the third straight month to their highest point in more than a decade. “Faster economic growth in recent quarters, the booming stock market and con- tinuous job gains are fueling substantial demand for buying a home as 2017 comes to an end,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. So, what’s on your transportation wish list for
2018? One transportation director I spoke with said she wants more drivers. I’m sure many of you feel the same way. Te driver shortage is persisting nationwide with no end in sight. Her other wish list item was for more data. More and more districts are leveraging data to create actionable results in their operations. Are you crunching data to help improve the safety and effi- ciency of your fleet? If not, it’s a great New Year’s goal. Be sure to work with your OEMs, dealers and
industry suppliers, local and national associations, as well as state, local and federal government represen- tatives. You’ll find their contact information in this year’s Buyers Guide. Please reach out to our commu- nity and let them help your team in 2018!
Tony Corpin, Publisher
School Transportation News Magazine | Buyer’s Guide 2018
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