Table 4.5—Poverty outcomes under growth scenarios Population
Poverty Outcome (percent) (percent)
Final year poverty rate in 2015 (percent) National poverty rate Rural Urban
Lowlands Midlands Highlands
Metropolitan National poverty gap National squared poverty gap
Poverty–growth elasticities, 2006–2015 National poverty rate Rural poverty rate Rural poverty gap
Rural squared poverty gap Urban poverty rate
100.0 84.3 15.7 6.3
59.5 22.2 11.9
51.3 51.9 47.6 61.0 54.7 41.4 47.1 17.9 8.2
share, 2003 rate, 2003 Baseline scenario
48.1 47.8 49.5 60.0 51.8 34.3 48.3 18.0 8.7
–0.38 –0.50 –0.37 –0.25 0.23
Industry-led
46.0 45.8 46.8 57.6 49.8 31.4 47.2 16.6 7.9
–0.51 –0.45 –0.57 –0.57 –0.78
Agriculture-led Foodcrops Livestock
38.7 36.7 48.6 55.0 40.0 24.9 47.9 12.8 5.7
–2.20 –2.66 –4.22 –5.32 –0.23
39.3 37.4 47.9 53.6 40.8 26.1 47.0 13.4 6.1
–2.13 –2.46 –3.72 –4.53 –0.66
41.6 40.1 48.8 58.7 44.1 25.9 47.9 15.0 7.1
–1.58 –1.90 –2.51 –2.84 –0.18
Export crops
39.9 37.9 49.8 54.3 41.9 25.2 48.7 13.1 5.9
–1.90 –2.36 –4.32 –5.66 0.15
Source: Kenyan dynamic computable general equilibrium model results. Notes: The microsimulation module is based on the 1997 survey (Kenya 2000), and so the initial poverty rates in the model are really those for 1997. The official basic needs poverty line is set at KES1,239 (US$21; rural) and KES2,648 (US$45; urban) per adult per month (1997 prices). The poverty gap is the extent, measured as a proportion of the poverty line, to which a given group of poor people’s consumption level falls below the poverty line. The squared poverty gap is the average of the squared values of the poverty gaps for differ- ent groups of poor people. KES = Kenyan shillings. Blank cells = not applicable.