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could warn and cooperate directly with target groups in at-risk states to restore their agency in saving their own lives. If these steps are successfully followed, many of the current weaknesses in the anti-genocide movement will have been overcome. The greatest challenge in realizing this proposed

solution is creating an effective early warning system to predict genocide. Numerous linguistic, logistical, technical, and financial obstacles stand in the way of creating such a system, but these can be overcome with dedication and creativity. This is not as difficult as it might first appear. As stressed above, most of the

theoretical work has already been done. We know what factors make genocides likely to happen, and how they develop and unfold. It will, of course, never be possible to predict the future with complete certainty, but one can work based on probabilities. Thanks to the advancement of technology and international migration, the world is smaller and more accessible than ever before. With the right resources, information can be shared between distant places almost instantaneously. Using technology to monitor open sources of information (such as international and local media), plot trends, and communicate with a carefully recruited network of international correspondents, genocide prediction can become a reality. When it does, the gap between theory and action will have been narrowed significantly and both sides will be much closer to reaching their common goal of ending genocide.

// Christopher Tuckwood is the co-founder and executive director of the Sentinel Project for Genocide Prevention (, a Toronto-based non-profit organization which works to predict and prevent genocide by cooperating with persecuted groups around the world.


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 

   Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25