It has long been the case that the US has paved the way for UK trends. BikeBiz calls on respected industry consultant Elliot Gluskin to shed some light on when the next major bike boom is due and how to prepare your business…
HAVING SPENT most of 2012 reviewing and analyzing both public and private data sources, we are projecting the next ‘Bike Boom’ in the US to arrive
sometime between 2020 and 2022, and this one will make the last one we experienced back in 1970-1973 seem like a speed bump. What is driving our projection? Simple, it’s all about
demographics! Mr. Jeb Bush, the former Governor of Florida, was
recently quoted as saying “demographics are destiny and if you just ignore it, you do it at your peril.” While spoken in the broader context of issues facing the US from a political standpoint, his comments are just as poignant when it comes to the biggest issue facing the American bicycle industry – generational change. Having been the driving force behind the growth of
the U.S. bicycle industry over the past three or more decades, the Baby Boomer generation – those born 1946-1964 – are now between 48 and 67 years of age today and they are no longer driving the industry’s performance. Rather, Generation X is now firmly in control of the U.S. bicycle market. As the chart top right (page10) shows, Baby Boomers
are falling further back into history, similar to what the Silent Generation (those who are 68-87 years old) has already done. The American Bicyclist Study, which was conducted in February of this year, confirmed that adult consumers making up Generation X are now the core consumer base for the US specialty bicycle retail channel; that they are spending significantly more than Boomers and are more active in bicycle riding. They now occupy
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unit sales (staying within the 12-13 million range over the past 12 years) and particularly within the specialty bicycle retail channel (the bike shops) which have flatlined at 2.5 million units. While the American Bicyclist Study’s report, The
the sweet spot for the American bicycle industry which is now consumers in the 30-36 age range. However, those who believe they will be garnering higher sales have not taken into account the 11 per cent Factor. Another look at the graph shows that the numbers of
births during the Generation X timeframe – particularly the 1972-1976 periods – are the lowest of the three generations, resulting in nine million fewer consumers coming from this generation than there were Boomers. This 11 per cent difference is what has caused the US bicycle industry to experience stagnant unit growth over the past ten years. The chart above shows this stagnation in both total