CEO JOURNAL DAN MARCUS, TDC CONSULTING INC., PRESCOTT, ARIZONA


A 50-Year Forecast T


hose in our industry of a certain age should be feeling a strong sense of déjà vu right now. In


1964, the candidacy of Barry Gold- water signaled the end of the liberal New Deal era and the rise of a neo- conservative tide that has held sway for roughly 50 years. During the interven- ing decades, and as best exemplified by the Reagan presidency, a particular policy environment developed within which metalcasters have operated. But that policy environment is already be- ing replaced. Tis forecast, like all my thinking


and writing, is rooted in Generational Teory, which has established that American politics, economics, and culture move forward in a repeat- ing generational cycle that proceeds in predictable ways and on a predictable timetable. According to Generational Teory, the Obama presidency signaled the beginning of the next wave of political and cultural changes—he was not their cause but their most significant result so far. And right now the new genera- tion’s “Goldwater moment” is unfolding before us in the candidacy of Bernie Sanders. His unexpected rise and pre- dictable fall, like Goldwater’s, is proof positive that the generational tipping point has already passed. All of us must adjust our outlooks and


to $15 per hour. Similar expansions of civil rights and the minimum wage at both the state and national levels will follow, so be prepared. Within the next four to eight years,


metalcasters should expect an end to the right-leaning, hyper-partisan policies of the past (and present) and a shift to a pragmatic, activist, good-for- metalcasting economic policy. Such a policy will explicitly recognize the failures of the so-called wars on pov- erty and drugs, call out Trickle Down Economics as a fraud, and chart a middle course which emphasizes posi- tive, inter-related, and locally-focused roles for government, business, and the non-profit sectors. Millennials believe in the power of civic institu-


CEOs need to be thinking


now about how to re-position their companies for success in the coming 50 years.


approaches to accommodate the sweep- ing cultural and political change that is already upon us, and prepare our busi- nesses for 50 years of the Millennial Era. Tree essential elements of that future are touched on here: economic policy, regula- tion and the changed workforce. For decades the formula for political success has been “It’s the economy, stu- pid” but those days are over. Looking ahead, the policy mantra will be some- thing more like “economic and social justice for all.” Te first high-profile successes of this policy priority are expanding LGBTQ rights and state- level increases in the minimum wage


40 | MODERN CASTING June 2016


tions to do good, and we will increas- ingly see the enactment of bi-partisan, non-ideological laws and policies that could correctly be called classically liberal (expansion of the social safety net), conservative (expansion of civil rights and overhaul of the tax code), and libertarian (drug legalization). Targeted tax increases and signifi- cant defense spending cuts are also coming, with those resources directed to rebuilding American institutions, infrastructure and urban communities. New Deal era regulations have


been aggressively scaled back in recent decades, and Millennials view this as a very big mistake. Looking ahead, metalcasters should expect a resur- gence in government intervention in business and big changes to regulatory


incentives and disincentives across a broad front including conservation, re- structuring of the banking and M&A industries, environmental protection, and an expansion of mandated benefits to advance social justice and economic fairness. All of this will have powerful impacts on the costs of doing business and on the way future organizations will need to be staffed. Te already changing workforce is having profound effects on how metalcasters position themselves in the market as well as on who and how we hire. Regarding the former, and as described in my previous column, Millennial buyers and engineers have a very different set of values and priorities than did their predeces- sors. Metalcasters should embrace these differences and begin to market them- selves accordingly to attract and retain customers in the years ahead. As to who and how we hire, the fact that the new wave of employ- ees is majority unmarried, increasingly diverse, and very differently motivated will increasingly challenge yesterday’s ideas about em- ployee recruiting, manage- ment, and retention.


Pyrrhic state-level attempts to stem the tide notwithstanding, new evidence of these profound changes has been coming to light for years, and both pace and proof increase with every passing day. Te peerless management and cultural scholar Peter Drucker wrote about them in his book “Post Capitalist Society” published back in 1993. Like all of Drucker’s books, this one is required reading for CEOs, all of whom need to be thinking now about how to em- brace the new realty and re-position their companies for success in the coming 50 years.


Keep the conversation going. Reach the author at tdcconsulting@outlook.com to comment on this or any CEO Journal column or to suggest topics for future columns.


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60