The future is here
Examining the ELCA’s widening clergy gap By Karris Golden
The ELCA is on pace to experience a major
shortfall in full-time clergy. Parish pastors are retiring in record numbers, according to current data and projections from ELCA Research and Evaluation. This, coupled with decreased seminary enrollment, means there aren’t likely to be enough pastors for the number of open calls. Jonathan Strandjord, ELCA program director
for seminaries, calls it a “retirement tsunami,” stressing the shortfall isn’t a future problem. “It’s here,” he added. “We’re in the middle of it, and that clergy gap will continue to widen. In fact, the gap is wider than it has ever been.” Most baby boomers entered ordained ministry
as young as their 20s and as late as their 50s. This group composes the largest segment of ELCA pastors, many of whom are in their mid-50s now. “We’re coming up on the peak of baby boomers
reaching retirement age,” Strandjord said. “New pastors are entering seminary, but at nowhere near the needed replacement rate.”
The number of ELCA ordained clergy retirements compared to the number of ordinations per year from 1988 to 2019 (actual fi gures through 2015, projections for 2016 through 2019).
500 400 300 200 Source: ELCA Research and Evaluation
The gap between the number of congregations that can aff ord a full-time, fi rst-call pastor and the number of congre- gational clergy available to serve those congregations is projected to widen (actual fi gures through 2015, with projections for 2016 through 2019).
5,000 5,600 6,200 6,800 7,400 8,000
Source: ELCA Research and Evaluation
Number of pastors serving congregations Number of congregations that can afford a pastor
A changing church landscape While the number of ELCA congregations that can afford a full-time minister has dropped steadily since 2005, there still aren’t enough pastors. In following the data, Research and Evaluation outlines myriad contributing factors in reports such as “The Supply and Demand for Clergy in the ELCA.” In short, the ELCA has fewer congregations, fewer members, fewer leaders and fewer financial resources. More than half of ELCA congregations are
located in sparsely populated, rural areas. Of those in medium-sized and larger cities or their suburbs, Research and Evaluation estimates as many as 450 can’t afford a full-time pastor. Some of the need is addressed with part-time
temporary staff from other congregations or retired pastors, Strandjord said, adding, “That is not an ideal, long-term solution.” Between 2005 and 2014, Research and
Ordinations Retirements
Why the low rate of pastoral growth? Fewer
children and grandchildren of boomers are interested in church membership, let alone ordination, said Gordon Straw, ELCA program director for lay schools for ministry. Data shows more people choose “none of the above” when asked for their religious affiliation, he noted. Researchers call these individuals “nones.” Straw hones in on the “dones”: “It’s a growing
category—65 million in the United States. These are people who have a deep understanding of their faith, but they’re leaving traditional congregations because they believe it doesn’t support them. They’re done.”
38 SEPTEMBER 2016
Evaluation observed an 11 percent decrease in ELCA congregations. This includes nearly 1,600 congregations and results from closures, consolidations and those that left the ELCA in response to the 2009 decision to ordain gay and lesbian people in committed relationships. During the same time, the number of baptized
members has dropped by 22 percent, with worship attendance falling almost a third. The gap is responsive to the economy in other
ways too, Strandjord said. Better pension plans and the advent of Medicare make retirement more realistic for today’s pastors. Meanwhile, economic crises like the Dotcom bubble and subprime mortgage crash create “pent up demand” to retire. To increase seminary enrollment, he suggested
congregations renew emphasis on encouraging ordained ministry and offering financial support. “A seminary education is not just a private good,” he said. “It’s not intellectual property I can leverage to make a buck; it’s something that benefits the common good. It’s a shared resource.”
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