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The Analysis Comment


A beacon of hope for the European leasing sector


Leasing firms are continuing to see growth in new business, which is resulting in increased optimism


Richard Ryan EMEA partner, Invigors richard.ryan@invigors.com


As 2017 came to a close, we produced out latest European Business Confidence Survey for Leaseurope, the representative body of the European leasing and automotive- rental industry.


A positive outlook The December findings showed a positive outlook for the European leasing business for the first half of 2018, encouraged by robust growth prospects for the overall European economy. The general picture for new-business


volumes, in the first half of 2018, remains positive, in line with previous research, with 80% of those surveyed expecting new- business volumes to increase, while just 5% anticipate a decline. Survey respondents’ expectations, on the


total level of bad debt, are mostly stable, with over 60% of participants forecasting that bad debt will remain unchanged over the coming six months, while 22% anticipate a decrease. In terms of competitive pressures, in total


29% expect margins will decrease in their organisations, the same level as in the previous survey, while over half (52%) anticipate no change. Nevertheless, 65% of


respondents


anticipate that net profit, in their own organisations, will increase over the next six months, while only 17% believe that this will fall.


12


Balance of opinion The latest survey suggests that there is a growing balance of opinion anticipating the emergence of new competition. In total, 41% of those surveyed thought


that competition from new entrants was more likely over the next six months, up from 34% recorded last June. In addition, just 39% expect merger and


acquisition activity to increase in the first half of 2018, compared to the 19% recorded in the previous survey. Industry expectations on a number of


expectations, on the total level of bad debt, are mostly stable, with over 60% of participants forecasting that bad debt will remain unchanged over


Survey respondents’


six months, while 22% anticipate a decrease


the coming


other key indicators, covering service levels and staffing, show little change for the first six months of 2018, though there are indications that expenditure on training and systems is anticipated to increase in several organisations represented in the survey.


Conclusion This survey suggests that the European leasing industry should enjoy a good start to 2018. Growth in new business acquired to remain strong, while


continues


expectations of most of the other KPIs support an overall positive trend. Sentiment on the outlook for the European leasing market, in 2018, appears


to be increasingly optimistic, driven by sustained economic growth and investment, combined with continued access to liquidity. CCR


www.CCRMagazine.com March 2018


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