STATE OF THE INDUSTRY
increase renewable heat generation and phase out fossil fuels from the energy system. US environmental protection expert John Hangar, a former Pennsylvania secretary of planning and policy, is, unsurprisingly, an advocate of renewable sources of power generation. He said recently: “The next seven years will be among the most astonishing in energy’s history. Solar generated 4.5% of global electricity in 2022 but will generate [around] 20% of global electricity in 2030. Zero carbon generation was 39% of global electricity in 2022 but will likely be [around] 60% in 2030.” The impetus for renewables has gained added urgency
recently following unsettling news that fossil fuel emissions are threatening a key climate threshold twice as quickly as previously thought. Researchers report in a new study that the 1.5°C limit could be continually breached by 2029 rather than the mid 2030s, as previously thought. They say record emissions of carbon dioxide over the past three years are a key factor in this. An even more recent report, this time from the UN
Environment Programme, found that carbon-cutting policies are so poor that 3°C of heating could be reached this century. The imperative need for more decarbonisation measures like heat pumps was also emphasised by the June 2023 decarbonisation progress report from the Climate Change Committee (CCC).
It found that the UK government had made limited headway in its net zero aspirations because of the slow pace of heat pump installations and the UK must rapidly scale-up work to expand the fi tting of heat pumps and district heating use. According to Lord Debden, chairman of the CCC: “Ministers seem less willing to put [the climate change] programme at the centre of their stated aims. Our confi dence in the achievement of the UK’s 2030 target and the fi fth and sixth carbon budgets has markedly declined from last year.” The CCC’s report added: “Heat pumps and heat networks
are no-regret options in many cases; industry needs encouragement to invest and roll them out at pace.” Which is important because early in 2023, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN’s key advisory body, projected that the world could only emit another 500bn tonnes of carbon and have a 50% chance of keeping warming under the 1.5°C fi gure. A criticism of heat pumps has been that they don’t cope well in cold conditions. In fact, the latest models can provide space and water heating, even in cold climates around the world. Analysis in a landmark paper called Coming in from the cold: Heat pump effi ciency at low temperatures confi rms that heat pumps can be successfully installed in these conditions without concerns over performance or the need for back-up heating capacity.
Indeed, the analysis reveals that even well below 0°C, heat pump effi ciency is still signifi cantly higher than fossil
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fuel and electric resistive heating systems at an appliance level.
The underlying message in most of the studies and
reports published over the last year or so is the suggestion that heat pumps are at a defi ning moment in their development. However, there needs to be a sea change in the way
we perceive heat pumps if they are to really fulfi l their promise. Heat pumps accounted for just 10% of global heating equipment sales in 2021 - for comparison, fossil fuel equipment accounted for 45%. By 2030, there could be be an estimated 253 million heat pump systems installed globally, but net zero scenarios require 600 million operational units by 2030. This represents a shortfall of 58% if adoption continues at the current rate. Part of the problem has been the diffi culty in like-for-like
replacement in refurbishment projects because of the typical low temperature nature of heat pumps compared with the high temperature nature of fossil fuel generated heat. This has a huge impact on the types of emitters used. However, heat pumps have developed into advanced, versatile and sustainable technology with high temperature versions – including natural carbon dioxide (CO2
) options – and hybrid systems off ering fl exible
temperature control and greater application fl exibility. More hope is off ered by the International Energy Agency
(IEA) in a report published in late 2022 which reveals that around 10% of space heating needs globally were met by heat pumps in 2021, but the pace of installation is growing rapidly with sales at record levels.
www.klima-therm.co.uk
www.acr-news.com • January 2024 21
As renowned management consultant Peter Drucker once put it: “Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window.”
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