update
What will be the impact of Brexit and how will that affect the European Lubricants industry? As yet none of us knows – but the past is often a reasonable indicator of the future especially in an industry which is as intrinsically stable as the lubricants business.
At school and university many of us tried to avoid statistics! Like taxes and many things in life they are not escaped so easily! What is broadly recognised is that statistics, even those reported by Governments and to Governments are never perfectly accurate. Items classified under one category in one country may be classified differently in another to suit the local taxation variations. The process of continued revision is a challenge and we expect it to continue. (GDP figures in many countries are frequently revised upwards and the means of recording reflect the new emerging categories).
Last year we published the first update for the EuropaLub set of countries for several years which showed that despite a growth in population from 410m to 430million as well as a growth in economic activity, lubricants consumption has fallen by 24% from 2003 to 2013. Per capita consumption has reduced by 28%. This was generated using the model derived from a more restricted range of variables.
EuropaLub has now collated the Market statistics from 6 core countries where lubricants data has been collected (in rather different formats). This data has been supplemented by EuropaLub/AIEE estimates for a further 12 countries. Combined, these countries account for over 90% of the European lubricants market volumes. See Figures 1 and 2.
Figure 4. (line graph) – Seven Categories Partition for the region. EuropaLub activities
The ELISSE Market Summary is available as an electronic service. This is available as a spreadsheet so that users can model the future demand on a segment-by-segment basis.
The next phase of research will be the updating of the current market data for 2015 which is planned to be released later in the year. Once again we thank all the participating Members who share their data that allows us to provide this service to the European industry.
Figure 1. (line graph) – Three Macro Categories for the region.
To purchase the Market Summary, the publication is available from Lube Magazine at a price of €98, with special terms for members of EuropaLub affiliated trade associations.
Figure 2. (table) – Three Macro Categories for the region
What Figures 1 and 2 show is the continued improvement in the lubricants efficiency in the Automotive oils, which is marginally offset by the growth in Industrial and Process oils. Slowly but surely the latter two sectors are pulling on volume.
In the last 12 months we have revised the model to bring in additional factors and extended the information to more countries. (If you want to know more about the technical assumptions please contact us).
38 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.134 AUGUST 2016
If you want more detailed figures, in MS Excel format for market planning purposes, electronic licensing arrangements are available, with prices ranging from €280 – €10,000 depending on the data set required. Please contact Suzy Jarman for details
suzy@ukla.org.uk.
Sebastian Crawshaw, President EuropaLub
Detailed Categories Figure 3. Phase 2 Expansion.
This has allowed us to increase the granularity of the data into more detailed segments, see Figure 3. While Engine oils have picked up slightly, the long term trend remains slowly and inexorably downwards!
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