downsmail.co.uk Projection not a forecast


Dear Sir – This is an open letter for Cllr Annabelle Blackmore, the leader of Maidstone Council: In the July issue of Downs Mail, your predecessor Chris Garland is quoted as saying that he had seen a copy of a report by KCC consultants which gave a projection of 19,600 additional homes for Maidstone in the period 2011-2031. This figure was at odds, he implied,


with the forecast need of 14,500 homes in the county council’s formal response to the borough council’s housing proposals. I have no inside knowledge of discussions that KCC might or might not have had with outside experts, but if KCC did take advice on housing projections for Maidstone I can readily agree that those experts would almost certainly have come up with a figure of about 19,600 dwellings over the 20-year period. That is because a projection is a tightly defined statistical construct applying specified assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration to recent population trends.Aprojection shows what the population would be if those assumptions were to be realised and if no other significant factors (such as government policy or changing economic circumstances) come into play. Producing a projection is like putting standard ingredients into a sausage machine – whoever shovels in the ingredients will always come up with the same “sausage” ie any expert would produce the same projection. Aprojection, though, is not a forecast of


what is likely to happen in a given context – it is merely a statement of what would happen if specified assumptions applied and if there were no other factors at work. The Office for National Statistics emphasises that its projections are not forecasts. It is easy to see the difference between a projection and a forecast if you go back to the year 1996 (or thereabouts): a population-and-housing projection for Maidstone made then, for the 20 years to 2016, would have been wildly wrong because, by definition, it would have been unable to take into account changing government policies, for example on inward migration. Housing projections rightly feed into an intelligence-based forecast of likely future need, but they are an ingredient, not the final product. As I see it, MBC and KCC disagree


about whether Maidstone needs 19,600 houses or 14,500 because they are talking about different things: MBC is using projections (what the housing need would be in tightly defined circumstances) and KCC is aiming for a forecast (what the actual need is likely to be taking into account the wider context). Local people must be disappointed and bemused to see an illusory battle being fought in the columns of the local press. Surely the time has now come for the


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Stephen Eighteen Editor stephen@downsmail.co.uk 01622 734735 ext 231


32 Maidstone Town September 2014 Diane Nicholls


Assistant editor diane@downsmail.co.uk 01622 734735 ext 232


Jane Shotliff


Journalist jane@downsmail.co.uk 01622 734735 ext 233


Dawn Kingsford


Journalist dawn@downsmail.co.uk 01622 734735 ext 233


borough council and the county council to sit down together, to reach an agreed forecast of actual future housing need and to build a united front? RichardWadey, Upper Fant Road, Maidstone


Maidstone Council has the responsibility for identifying the borough’s objectively assessed housing need.We need to work closely with other organisations including KCC to meet this need. Much detailed work has been undertaken to calculate the housing need and this will be regularly reviewed and refined as new information becomes available. Equally thorough work is being done byMaidstone Council with colleagues at KCC concerning the infrastructure needs arising from growth in housing in the borough – including for transport and education – so that Maidstone Council has a deliverable plan. Since I took office in June I have attended


several meetings with KCC elected members and officers. All meetings about the draft Maidstone local plan have been productive and conducted in good spirit with co-operation on both sides. There are occasions when articles appear in


the media that seek to create an issue or problem, but I can assure you that this is definitely not the case. I am pleased to say that recently our collaboration has resulted in funding to address some current and future transport requirements. I am confident that working together we will produce a plan which we can continue to deliver together. Response by Cllr Annabelle Blackmore, Maidstone Council leader


has been closed to through traffic the quality and time of journeys to and from our homes has improved immeasurably and I do not look forward to the return of the horrendous traffic jams and sheer volume of traffic that will return if the resurfacing is ever finished. I, for one, hope it takes as long as possible! BrianMillen, Chapman Avenue, Maidstone


Anglers have fixed bridges


Dear Sir – Following the letter in last month’s edition regarding the lack of repairs to the footpath on the River Medway damaged in the winter floods, I have the following update. Maidstone Victory Angling Society (which manages the fishing along this part of the river) tried for several months to spur the relevant authorities into action, especially to replace the three footbridges, which had been displaced. In light of the inaction, the club decided to act unilaterally. I am happy to report that a group of


volunteers from the fishing club, led by secretary John Shrimpton, have re- positioned these bridges. In addition, the bridges have been secured and ballasted to prevent the same damage occurring next time the river floods. This work was carried out at the club’s expense, as part of their responsibility as a community club, over a period of several weeks. Anyone who has tried to move yards of cement along a 2km riverbank by hand will appreciate the hard work involved. This work was already underway at the


time of publication of your last edition. Hopefully the authorities responsible


for the footpath will act to repair the damaged lengths in the near future. Keith Dacey, Chairman Maidstone Victory Angling Society


Lights are embarrassing Road repair not before time


Dear Sir – The article “Drivers hit by road closure” (Willington Street) and the paragraph in the parish council report on Detling referring to the quality of resurfacing work in Church Lane, in the Downs Mail August 2014, prompted me to comment on the many years of hazardous, if slow, motoring we have had to endure inWillington Street. Potholes, subsidence and numerous


roadworks over the last few years have been abysmal in the quality of repair and resurfacing. Local residents and, I am sure, the many non-locals who use Willington Street as a rat-run between the Sutton Road and the A20 look forward to a decent, fairly smooth new road surface “sometime in the future”. I would add that sinceWillington Street


Dear Sir – Does anybody else feel that the traffic lights at the junction of Madginford Road andWillington Street in Bearsted are an embarrassment? Does KCC honestly believe that they are efficient? They are the opposite; they totally fail to serve us, the public. They cause unbelievable delays and backups onto the A20 to the north, and to the south well past School Lane – and not only in the rush hour. The Madginford lights are totally responsible for very unacceptable delays; let’s not hear excuses about the road in Leeds, which came after their installation. Would it not be beyond the realms of common sense to quickly remove the lights? I suggest reshaping the corners on the Mote Park side of the Madginford junction and build a simple offset roundabout, slightly to the west, with two pedestrian crossings.


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